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Dryad

Data from: A long-term perspective to the effects of the 2023 marine heat wave on stony corals in the Caribbean

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Sep 19, 2025 version files 1.75 MB

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Abstract

Marine heat waves (MHW) are a leading cause of death for stony corals, and it is reasonable to expect that a record-breaking MHW would negatively impact coral communities. 2023–2024 provided a test of this assertion in St. John, US Virgin Islands, where an intense MHW brought temperatures of 30.6°C and degree-heating weeks of 23.23°C-weeks. On reefs where coral cover has been low for decades, the 2023/24 MHW did not have discernible effects on coral cover. Nonetheless, there was a trend between 2023 and 2024 for mean coral cover to decline by small absolute (≤ 3%), but large relative (13–27%) amounts, with these changes affecting multiple genera and perturbing coral assemblages, especially at 14-m depth. These trends are eclipsed by the massive changes that have affected these coral communities over the last four decades; the 2023/24 MHW was the latest in a series of disturbances transitioning these reefs to low coral cover. This MHW did not statistically depress coral cover, but it changed coral assemblages, intensifying the ecological perils of rarity, extirpation, and perhaps local extinction.