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Dryad

Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s

Kim, Yong-Jun1; Yeh, Sang-Wook1; Wang, Guojian234; N.G., Benjamin2

Published Jan 16, 2026 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7pvmcvf6n

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Abstract

Compound drought–heatwave events (CDHEs) have significantly increased since the early 2000s, posing elevated risks to socio-ecosystems. However, the physical characteristics of drought- and heatwave-leading CDHEs and their relative contributions to the overall increase remain unexplored. Using a multi-hazard pair generation algorithm with daily reanalysis data, we show that this increase is primarily driven by heatwave-leading CDHEs, with the slope of increase in affected land area rising nearly eightfold, from 1.6% to 13.1% per °C since the early 2000s. This pattern is evident at the global scale but also shows considerable regional variation. We find that the nonlinear amplification of land–atmosphere coupling since the late 1990s has not only induced the emergence of a statistically significant positive sensitivity but has also resulted in a marked increase in sensitivity in high occurrence regions. These findings highlight the importance of considering the regional risks associated with heatwave-leading CDHEs when adapting to climate change.