Skip to main content
Dryad

High habitat potential but limited connectivity for brown bears throughout Europe

van den Bosch, Merijn1

Published Dec 01, 2025 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.83bk3jb48

Data files

Dec 01, 2025 version files 624.65 MB

Click names to download individual files

Abstract

Large carnivores worldwide have experienced substantial range contractions due to human activities. Using an ensemble species distribution model and occurrence data from all European brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations, we assessed current and potential bear habitat as well as habitat connectivity. Habitat suitability was strongly associated with low human development, high forest cover, and proximity to forest. Of our entire study area, 37% (4.09 million km2) is suitable for bears. Connectivity analyses identified corridors that could facilitate movement among southern European bear populations, though agriculture and human development limit connectivity between northern and southern European bear populations. Previous research estimated bears occupied 0.5 million km2 across the European Union, while our results estimate 1.82 million km2 of this area is potentially suitable for bears, though connectivity is limited. Our results inform conservation strategies and policy development for the future of brown bears in Europe, emphasizing the need for transboundary conservation efforts. Raw species presence data are not publicly available as the subject species (European brown bear) is listed under Annex IV of the EU Habitats Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC), which designates it as a species of community interest in need of strict protection. Article 12 of the directive prohibits deliberate disturbance, capture, or killing of individuals in the wild and includes protections for breeding sites and resting places. Presence data censored to a 10-km resolution are available from this repository, as is the code used to create the ensemble model.