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Dryad

Metabolic growth mechanisms and theoretical growth potential of global woody plant communities

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Dec 16, 2025 version files 260.61 MB

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Abstract

Predicting the growth and maximum biomass (Mmax) of woody plant communities (WPCs) is challenging due to the complexity and variability of tree growth. While Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) offers a promising concept, its current theoretical framework is still insufficient. Here, we applied MST principles and our previous findings to propose an iterative growth model for the growth and NPP of WPCs (IGMF). This model and its extension show that WPC growth, net primary productivity, and other carbon budgets - such as total primary productivity, autotrophic respiration, organ turnover biomass, and non-structural carbohydrates - can be expressed as functions of current biomass, maintenance respiration rate per unit biomass, and stand age or Mmax. These globally convergent functions allow estimation of the current (2018–2020) global Mmax of woody plant communities at 1,440  ±  26 Pg, based solely on their current state, with an additional 510 Pg of remaining biomass potential. However, machine learning projections suggest that this potential may decline by 246 Pg by 2100, primarily in evergreen broadleaf forests. Species richness, by promoting functional convergence, amplifies the negative effects of temperature and precipitation seasonality on Mmax. In contrast, warming in the Northern Hemisphere may enhance Mmax in open shrublands. Our findings reveal WPC growth kinetics and show a shift in the main contributor to terrestrial carbon sequestration from forests to shrublands.