Data from: Powerful yet challenging: Mechanistic Niche Models for predicting invasive species potential distribution under climate change
Data files
May 29, 2025 version files 1.25 MB
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README.md
1.84 KB
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ReadMe.txt
1.15 KB
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Supplementary_Material_1_v1.docx
1.11 MB
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SupplementaryMaterial_2_v1.xlsx
133.79 KB
Abstract
Risk assessments of invasive species present one of the most challenging applications of species distribution models (SDMs) due to the fundamental issues of distributional disequilibrium, niche changes, and truncation. Invasive species often occupy only a fraction of their potential environmental and geographic ranges, as their spatiotemporal dynamics are shaped by intraspecific variability, human-mediated introductions, novel biotic interactions, climate change, rapid selection, and ecological niche shifts. Traditional correlative SDMs struggle to capture these processes because they implicitly assume distributions are at equilibrium and rely on observed occurrences that seldom represent the full environmental niche of invasive species. Predicting future potential distributions therefore requires moving beyond simple climate-matching approaches to models that explicitly capture the mechanisms underlying species responses to their environment. Mechanistic Niche Models (MNMs) are process-explicit models that address these limitations by capturing species' performance across environmental gradients. By incorporating physiological constraints and vital rates, MNMs offer a mechanistic understanding of species-environment relationships and enable more robust predictions onto novel environments. However, a unified MNM framework remains elusive. In this review, we delve into the theoretical foundations of MNMs, emphasizing their advantages over correlative approaches, focusing on invasive species. We provide insights into diverse modelling techniques across taxa and examine the benefits and limitations of MNMs for predicting species distributions under novel conditions. Our systematic review reveals that MNMs have been applied sparingly to invasive species, focusing primarily on insects and plants, likely due to high data requirements. MNMs constitute the most suitable approach for defining species distribution limits under novel conditions, but their success depends on the relevance of input data and effective parameterisation, including genotype selection, model type, experimental conditions, and physiological curve-fitting techniques. MNMs offer significant potential for advancing ecological research and providing robust tools for evidence-based management decisions for populations in disequilibrium under changing environmental conditions.
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.f7m0cfz7n
Description of the data and file structure
This repository contains the data of the article published in Ecography 10.1002/ecog.07775 entitled "Powerful yet challenging: Mechanistic Niche Models for predicting invasive species potential distribution under climate change" by Fenollosa, Erola; Pang, Sean Eng Howe; Briscoe, Natalie; Guisan, Antoine; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto"
To evaluate the existence of literature using mechanistic niche models to forecast invasive species distribution, we performed a systematic review. The current data includes the protocol followed to perform the systematic review and the resulting articles, including all information extracted from them.
The systematic search was performed on the 15th of September 2024.
Any questions about the data or methods could be sent to the corresponding and first author: Dr. Erola Fenollosa (erola.fenollosa@gmail.com).
Files and variables
File: SupplementaryMaterial_2_v1.xlsx
Description: List of articles and extracted data that resulted of the systematic review of mechanistic niche models on invasive species. This excel file contains two sheets:
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Data: List of articles and attributes extracted from each
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Metadata: List of variables and their description included in the "Data" tab.
File: Supplementary_Material_1_v1.docx
Description: Description of the methodology followed to obtain the data in SupplementaryMaterial_2_v1.xlsx, result of a systematic review.
File: ReadMe.txt
Description: An overall description of the data including the information found here.
