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Dryad

Data from: From hot to cold spots: Climate change will change diversity patterns of small mammals in a biodiversity hotspot

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Jun 26, 2025 version files 244.21 MB

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Abstract

Climate change represents one of the main current threats to biodiversity. Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are expected to induce species range shifts and alter diversity and distribution patterns in the Atlantic forest. In this paper, we evaluate if protected areas and forest remnants will ensure the richness and the phylogenetic diversity of small mammals under scenarios of future climate change. Species distribution models were used to assess the potential distribution of small mammals using baseline and future (2050 and 2070) in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results showed that climate changes will lead to a strong reduction in the suitable climatic areas for small mammals in the AF. The shrinkage in the potential distribution will lead to high loss of TD and PD. The southeastern region of the Atlantic Forest is likely to experience the most pronounced decline in PD, while some small areas in the southern and northeastern regions are projected to increase PD in the future. We predict a strong decline in TD and in PD from biodiversity hotspots regions in the AF under climate change scenarios. Since small mammals have low dispersal ability, and because most of the AF is highly fragmented, it is unlikely that this biome will sustain small mammal biodiversity in the future