From lagging to leading: Increased phenological asynchrony in a Batesian mimicry complex
Data files
Apr 30, 2025 version files 27.58 MB
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ModelMimics.zip
27.57 MB
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README.md
14.53 KB
Abstract
Climate change disrupts ecological systems by shifting species distributions and altering phenological patterns, significantly affecting interspecific interactions like Batesian mimicry. Effective mimicry relies on the spatial and temporal overlap between mimics and their models to deter predators. This idea has persisted despite emerging data that challenges it. To assess phenological position and flight season changes, we extracted flight season data for model bumblebee species and mimicking hoverflies for the Scandinavian peninsula, spanning a little over century-and-a-half. We estimated shifts in the annual mean flight season and the phenological order of emergence in our Batesian system while accounting for yearly survey variations. We found compelling evidence of a temporal shift in flight season dynamics in the Batesian system. Mimics historically flew significantly earlier than models, but in more recent years, there has been a pronounced trend towards mimics flying later than models. This temporal decoupling highlights potential impacts on mimicry effectiveness, as mismatches with peak model activity periods could increase the predation risk for mimics. The shift from mimics emerging earlier to models flying earlier is particularly concerning, underscoring the fitness consequences of climate-driven changes on ecological interactions.
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.jwstqjqjw
Description of the data and file structure
1) ModelMimics_raw data file
*Description: *This Excel spreadsheet contains raw observational data on flight times of model bumblebees and their hoverfly mimics, extracted on 21 June 2023 from two online citizen science and museum specimen databases: Norwegian Artsdatabanken (https://www.artsdatabanken.no/) and Swedish Artportalen (https://www.artportalen.se/) (refer to the methods section of the paper). Data were downloaded, translated where necessary (from Norwegian and Swedish), and cleaned for use in our study. Please refer to the methods section of the accompanying paper for further details on data collection and cleaning protocols. The file contains five CSVs, which are described below.
Files and variables
a) Artsdatabanken_mimic 21.06.2023
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Content: Raw records of mimic hoverflies from Norway.
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Notes: Column headings are provided in both Norwegian and English.
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Variables:
Column Name (English) Description institution Name of the hosting institution (e.g., museum or database source). collection Name of the collection within the institution. IUCN status Conservation status from IUCN (e.g., Least Concern, Vulnerable, etc.). validScientificName Validated scientific name of the organism. taxonGroupName Taxonomic group the species belongs to (e.g., Syrphidae, Bombus). Finder/Collector Person who found or collected the specimen. Date Date the observation or collection was made (format: DD.MM.YYYY). locality Specific site where the organism was observed. coordinate Precision Precision level of the geographical coordinates. municipality Municipality where the record was made. county County/region of observation. individualCount Number of individuals observed. basisOfRecord Type of record (e.g., human observation, specimen). identifiedBy Person who identified the species. validated (Yes/NO) Whether the record was validated. catalogNumber Internal catalog number for the specimen or record. latitude Latitude coordinate in decimal degrees. longitude Longitude coordinate in decimal degrees. East Eastern UTM coordinate. North Northern UTM coordinate. geometry Geospatial data field (if used). behavior Noted behavior at the time of observation (e.g., flying, resting). Photo documentation Presence of associated photographs. dateLastModified Date of last modification of the record. dateLastIdentified Date the species was last identified. occurrenceId Unique identifier for the occurrence. datasetName Name of the dataset from which this record originates. notes Any additional notes or comments. habitat Description of the habitat where the organism was found. Sex Sex of the individual (if determined). (M=male, F=female,u= arbeider =worker, hann= male drone=queen, dronning=queen) otherCatalogNumbers Any additional catalogue/reference numbers. recordNumber Another identifier, possibly from the source database. fieldNumber Field-specific identifier from data collection. Preparation method Method used for specimen preparation (if applicable). dynamicProperties Additional properties, possibly in JSON or coded format. nodeId Internal database node ID (likely specific to Artsdatabanken). Institutional code Short code representing the institution. collectionCode Short code for the specific collection.
b) Artsdatabanken_model 21.06.2023
- Content: Raw records of model bumblebees from Norway.
- Notes: Similar format and structure as file (a).
c) Artportalen_mimic 21.06.2023
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Content: Raw records of mimic hoverflies from Sweden.
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Notes: Original Swedish headings translated into English.
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Variables
Column Name Description Id Unique internal record ID from Artportalen. Taxon Sort Order Sorting index for taxonomic display/order. Validation status Indicates whether the record has been reviewed or validated. Red list Conservation status (e.g., listed as endangered in Sweden’s red list). Taxon id Taxon identifier used by Artportalen. Taxon Name Common name of the organism (in Swedish). Scientific Taxon Name Full scientific name (e.g., Bombus terrestris). Auctor Author who originally described the taxon. Quantity Number of individuals observed. Unit Unit of the quantity (typically “individuals”). Stage Life stage of the organism (e.g., adult, larva). Gender Sex of the individual (if known). Activity Observed behavior (e.g., flying, feeding). Discovery method How the species was observed or collected. Parent Site Broader site region or grouping. Site name Specific site of the observation. Longitude Longitude in decimal degrees. Latitude Latitude in decimal degrees. Accuracy Spatial accuracy of location coordinates (e.g., in meters). Diffusion Spatial extent or spread of location estimate. County Swedish county where the record was made. Municipality Municipality of the record. County2 Secondary county (if relevant). Parrish Local parish of the observation. External id External identifier (if connected to another database). Start date Date the observation began. Start time Time of the start of observation. End date End date of observation (if range-based). End time End time of observation. Public comment Comment visible to the public. Private comment Comment only visible to logged-in users or admins. Not recovered Whether the organism was lost/not collected after observation. Uncertain determination Flag indicating uncertainty in species identification. Determination method Method used to identify the species. Unspontaneous Indicates whether the organism was introduced or planted. Biotope General habitat classification (e.g., forest, meadow). Biotope description Detailed description of habitat or surroundings. Determiner Person who identified the species. Determination year Year the identification was made. Confirmator Person who confirmed the ID (if applicable). Confirmation year Year of confirmation. Owner Owner of the dataset or original observer. Submitted by Person who submitted the record. Observers List of all observers present during the record. Link to BOLD/GenBank URL linking the record to genetic databases (if applicable). Project name Name of the project that generated the record (if any).
d) Artportalen_model 21.06.2023
- Content: Raw records of model bumblebees from Sweden.
- Notes: Follows the same format as (c)
e) NorSwe_usable data
- Content: Cleaned, merged, and standardized dataset combining usable records from all four tabs above (Norway and Sweden; model and mimic species) after filtering out queried records (from tabs a-d above)
- Variables: As explained above.
Notes on Missing Data cells
- Cells marked as** N/A** (not available) indicate that the original source database did not provide any data for that field in the given record.
- These missing values reflect gaps in the publicly available biodiversity databases and are not due to data processing or filtering done by the authors.
2) ModelMimics
Description: This file contains the merged and cleaned observational records from Norway and Sweden. This is the dataset used in all statistical analyses in the accompanying R-code file.
- File Format: CSV
- Key Columns:
· Species: Name of the species
· Taxon: "Tovinger" (hoverfly mimic) or "Veps" (bumblebee model)
· Longitude: Decimal degree longitude coordinate
· Latitude: Decimal degree latitude coordinate
· Precision: Accuracy level of spatial coordinates
· count: Total number of individuals observed
· elevation: Elevation of the observation point (in meters)
· ordinal: Julian day of the year
· date: Calendar date of observation
· year: Year of observation
3) R script - Bombus 2
Description: contains the R scripts used for the analysis
**Note to Users:
**We recommend using the ModelMimics data for analyses, as it contains cleaned and harmonized data. For raw, unprocessed data, refer to files (dataset 1a–e above).
Code/software
All analyses were performed using R version (R Core Team 2022).
Flight season data (citizen-science observations and museum specimens) of model bumblebees and mimic hoverflies was extracted from Norwegian Artsdatabanken (https://www.artsdatabanken.no) and Swedish Artportalen (https://artportalen.se/). The data was cleared off records lacking valid species names and duplicate entries; with start and end dates exceeding one month were deemed invalid and excluded from further analysis.
