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Integrating remote sensing and meteorological data to identify key drivers of the potential distribution of a grassland grasshopper

Bobo, Du1; Haibin, Han2; Fangzheng, Yue3; Shujing, Gao4; Yuhai, Bao1

Published Feb 05, 2026 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pvmcvdp0r

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Abstract

A detailed understanding of the mechanisms linking environmental factors to insect pest outbreaks is crucial. Combining these key factors to establish reliable models for the early identification of potential pest distribution is essential for protecting ecosystems and reducing economic losses. We identified and analyzed the study object Oedaleus decorus asiaticus (O. decorus) for key environmental factors and their thresholds influencing the distribution. An ensemble model (EM) incorporating these key environmental factors was then constructed to delineate the potential suitable areas for this species. The results indicated that: (1) EM offers significant advantages for monitoring suitable areas for O. decorus. The accuracy of the model was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS), which yielded values of 0.973 and 0.833, respectively. (2) Climate is the determining factor directly influencing the distribution of O. decorus, particularly because temperature often affects the entire life cycle of this taxon. The total precipitation in August is crucial in their distribution. Other topographical features, apart from elevation, exert minor influence in their distribution. Vegetation biomass during the oviposition and incubation periods influenced the distribution of this species. The distribution of their suitable areas is strongly influenced by vegetation type but shows little correlation with soil type. (3) The suitable areas of this species in 2022 and 2023 were identified. The most suitable areas of O. decorus are distributed in the central, southeastern, and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia, which overlapped with the zones of agro–pastoralism. Our findings provide positive implications for grasshopper monitoring and control in Inner Mongolia. The theoretical and methodological approaches developed here can be extended to guide the monitoring and prediction of other pests.