Data and code from: Hindcast body temperature reveals sites of amplified thermal risk in global Coastlines
Data files
Abstract
Identifying regions where organisms are most (and least) vulnerable to climate change remains a key focus in ecological research. However, accurately capturing the thermal stress experienced by many, if not most, organisms is challenging because body temperature, which determines physiological performance, is driven by multiple environmental factors. We hindcasted hourly body temperatures of intertidal mussels globally using a modified heat budget model and assessed thermal risks (extreme temperatures and heatwaves) and hotspots based on body temperature. Results indicated that 98.34% of global coastal mussel populations faced at least one thermal risk factor. Most thermal risk metrics exhibited a patchy, mosaic distribution. Semi-enclosed topography and western boundary currents are thermal risk amplifiers, making organisms in these regions more vulnerable than those in other regions of the same latitude. Our research demonstrates the utility of hindcast body temperature in integrating multiple thermal metrics to assess global thermal risks.
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.r7sqv9sph
Description of the data and file structure
Dryad dataset
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.r7sqv9sph
Description of the data and file structure
Code and data used in this study, including model verfication, body temperature calculations, data analysis, and data.
Code: Codes used in paper
Code\model_verfication: Code for model validation.
Code\temperature_calculation: Calculate body temperature
Code\data analysis: data analysis
Data: Data used in paper
Data\exposure: Data related to tidal exposure probability
Data\heatwave: Data related to heatwaves
Data\rate: Data related to trends of body temperature using MK test
Data\risk: Data related to thermal risk
Data\sem: Data related to SEM
Data\Tpercent: Data related to body temperature
Data\trend: Data related to trends of some thermal metrics
Data\other: Other data used
Files and variables
File: Code.zip
Description: Codes used in paper
Code\model_verfication\Calculate_tidal_zonation_test.m:Calculation of intertidal zone heights.
Code\model_verfication\Extraction_of_meteorological_data_for_model_verfication_using_matlab_test.m: Extraction of meteorological data corresponding to the validation site.
Code\model_verfication\Extraction_of_meteorological_data_for_model_verfication_using_parallel_operations.R: Extraction of meteorological data corresponding to validation sites using parallel operations
Code\model_verfication\Model_validation.m: model validation
Code\model_verfication\Model_validation_preparation.m: Write latitude and longitude points for 24 verification points
Code\model_verfication\Organize_model_validation_sites.m: Organize model validation site information with corresponding CFSR indexes
Code\model_verfication\Prediction_of_tidal_height_test.m: Code for global tidal prediction
Code\model_verfication\Preparing_data_for_SiteParser.m: The output is used in the software SiteParser for calculation.
Code\model_verfication\Processing_SiteParser_results.m: Converting SiteParser's result format
Code\temperature_calculation\Calculate body temperature.m: Calculate body temperature
Code\temperature_calculation\Calculate_temperature_using_lsm_Complete.m: LSM in intertidal zone Complete Edition
Code\temperature_calculation\Estimate_the_timing_of_exposure_and_submergence.m: Estimate the timing of exposure and submergence
Code\temperature_calculation\Extract_swh_data.m: Extract significant wave height
Code\temperature_calculation\Extraction_of_global_meteorological_data_for_model_verfication_using_parallel_operations.R: Extraction of global meteorological data for model verfication using parallel operations.
Code\temperature_calculation\Extraction_of_global_meteorological_data_using_parallel_operations.R: Extraction of global meteorological data using parallel operations
Code\temperature_calculation\Organize_extracted_meteorological_data.m: Organize extracted meteorological data
Code\temperature_calculation\Prediction_of_global_tidal_height.m: Code for global tidal prediction
Code\data analysis\a1_heatwave_calculate.R: Calculating heatwaves
Code\data analysis\a1_heatwave_prepare.m: Preparing the data for calculating heatwaves
Code\data analysis\a1_output_data_analysis: Analyzing body temperatures
Code\data analysis\ARIMA.R: Using the Arima model to analyze data trends
Code\data analysis\b1_heatwave_analysis.m: Analyzing heatwave results
Code\data analysis\c1_variable_processing.m: Calculating trends in metrics
Code\data analysis\d1_hotspots_processing.m: Calculating hotspot frequency
Code\data analysis\e1_Riskscore_processing.m: Calculating Risk score
Code\data analysis\ElNino_and_EOF_analysis.m: Analyzing ElNino using some methods like EOF
Code\data analysis\f1_prepare_data_SEM.m: Preparing data for SEM
Code\data analysis\f1_prepare_data_SEM_to_tideexposure_hourly.m: Filtering out the exposure phase portion of the prepared data for SEM
Code\data analysis\f1_VIF.R: Doing VIF analysis ensures that there is no strong covariance in the data used
Code\data analysis\f1_SEM.R: Using SEM
Code\data analysis\g1_results.m: Filling of results within the paper
Code\data analysis\Get_sem_effect.R: Function to analyze the total effect of SEM
Code\data analysis\h1_tables.m: Calculating table data within this paper
File: Data.zip
Description: Data used in paper.
Data\LONLAT.xls: Longitude and latitude of the site used for the study.
Data\exposure\a1_*_Tide1_exposure_noon3_all.xls: Hours of summer tidal exposure (in h), listed for the 44 years 1980-2023. * is the order of latitude and longitude, e.g., when *=1000, it means that the file contains data for locations 1-1000 in LONLAT.xls; when *=2000, it means that the file contains data for locations 1001-2000 in LONLAT.xls.
Data\exposure\a1_hottest_hours.xls: UTC of the highest temperature of the day in summer at each location.
Data\exposure\a1_hottest_month_3hours*.csv: The UTC of the second of three consecutive hours of the highest temperature of the day in summer at each location, listed for the 44 years 1980-2023.* is the order of latitude and longitude, e.g., when *=1000, it means that the file contains data for locations 1-1000 in LONLAT.xls; when *=2000, it means that the file contains data for locations 1001-2000 in LONLAT.xls.
Data\exposure\a2_all_Tide_prop_noon_3.xls: Probability of exposure for all sites for 3 consecutive hours at the highest temperature of the summer day, listed for the 44 years 1980-2023.
Data\heatwave\a1_Cuminta_all.csv: Annual cumulative heatwave intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in °C*days).
Data\heatwave\a1_Daya_all.csv: Annual heatwave duration for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in days).
Data\heatwave\a1_Maxinta_all.csv: Annual maximum heatwave intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in °C).
Data\heatwave\a1_Meaninta_all.csv: Annual mean heatwave intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in °C).
Data\heatwave\All_all_type1.xls: Summary of heatwave conditions for the period 1980-2023 at various points around the globe. Column “num_heatwave”: total number of heatwaves; column “num_heatwave_meanyear“: average number of heatwaves per year; column "num_heatwave _total_day“: total number of heatwave days (in days); column “num_heatwave_mean_waveday“: average number of heatwave days per year (in days); column ”num_heatwave_during_day heatwave_during_day“: average duration of a single heatwave (in days); column “heatwave_mean_intensity“: average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column ”heatwave_mean_intensity": average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column “heatwave_max_intensity”: maximum intensity of the heat wave (in: °C); column “heatwave_cumu_intensity”: cumulative intensity of the heat wave (in: °C*days) column “I Moderate” “II Strong” “III Severe” "IV Extreme ": number of heat waves of each level.
Data\heatwave\cum_all.xls: Cumulative intensity of heatwaves per year (1980-2023) at each global location (in: °C*days).
Data\heatwave\day_all.xls: Annual heatwave duration of heatwaves per year (1980-2023) at each global location (in: days).
Data\heatwave\max_all.xls: Average maximum heatwave intensity per year (1980-2023) at each global location (in: °C).
Data\heatwave\mean_all.xls: Average mean heatwave intensity per year (1980-2023) at each global location (in: °C).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_AHW.xls: Summary of heatwave conditions for the period 1980-2023 at various points around the globe based on a calculation for atmospheric heatwaves.Column “num_heatwave”: total number of heatwaves; column “num_heatwave_meanyear“: average number of heatwaves per year; column "num_heatwave _total_day“: total number of heatwave days (in days); column “num_heatwave_mean_waveday“: average number of heatwave days per year (in days); column ”num_heatwave_during_day heatwave_during_day“: average duration of a single heatwave (in days); column “heatwave_mean_intensity“: average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column ”heatwave_mean_intensity": average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column “heatwave_max_intensity”: maximum intensity of the heat wave (in: °C); column “heatwave_cumu_intensity”: cumulative intensity of the heat wave (in: °C*days) column “I Moderate” “II Strong” “III Severe” "IV Extreme ": number of heat waves of each level. The columns on seasons represent the number of heat waves that occur in each season. The column for year represents the number of heat waves that occurred each year.
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_cum_int_year.xls: Average annual cumulative intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in °C*days).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_day.xls: Average annual heatwave duration for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in days).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_max_int.xls: Average annual maximum heatwave intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in days).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_max_int.xls: Average annual mean heatwave intensity for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in days).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_num.xls: Average annual heatwave number for global coastal intertidal mussel heatwaves during the 44-year period 1980-2023 (in days).
Data\heatwave\total_result_all_MHW.xls: Summary of heatwave conditions for the period 1980-2023 at various points around the globe based on a calculation for marine heatwaves.Column “num_heatwave”: total number of heatwaves; column “num_heatwave_meanyear“: average number of heatwaves per year; column "num_heatwave _total_day“: total number of heatwave days (in days); column “num_heatwave_mean_waveday“: average number of heatwave days per year (in days); column ”num_heatwave_during_day heatwave_during_day“: average duration of a single heatwave (in days); column “heatwave_mean_intensity“: average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column ”heatwave_mean_intensity": average intensity of a heatwave (in °C); column “heatwave_max_intensity”: maximum intensity of the heat wave (in: °C); column “heatwave_cumu_intensity”: cumulative intensity of the heat wave (in: °C*days) column “I Moderate” “II Strong” “III Severe” "IV Extreme ": number of heat waves of each level. The columns on seasons represent the number of heat waves that occur in each season. The column for year represents the number of heat waves that occurred each year.
Data\other\a1_all_MEOW_Cluster.csv: MEOW partitioning information for each site.
Data\other\a1_ENSO_ONI.csv: ONI calculations for 1980-2023.
Data\other\a1_ENSO1.csv: Grading ENSO intensity based on ONI.
Data\other\a1_Heatwave_day_notrend_lanczosfiltera.csv: De-trending annual heatwave days based on lanczosfilter.
Data\other\a1_Heatwave_Meanint_notrend_lanczosfiltera.csv: De-trending annual mean heatwave intensity based on lanczosfilter.
Data\other\a1_Tmean_all_T99_notrend_lanczosfiltera.csv: De-trending annual T99 based on lanczosfilter.
Data\other\a1_Tmean_all_Tbody_notrend_lanczosfiltera.csv: De-trending annual mean body temperature based on lanczosfilter.
Data\rate\beta_all.csv: Trends in T99 based on the MK trend test (in °C/year).
Data\rate\beta_Tmean_all.csv: Trends in Tmean based on the MK trend test (in °C/year).
Data\rate\kk2_all.csv: Trends in T99 based on the GLM (in °C/year).
Data\rate\kk2_Tmean_all.csv: Trends in Tmean based on the GLM (in °C/year).
Data\risk\a1_heatwaveday.csv: Risk Score of heatwave day
Data\risk\a1_heatwavemeanint.csv: Risk Score of heatwave mean intensity
Data\risk\a1_hotspot.csv: Risk Score of hotspot
Data\risk\a1_t99.csv: Risk Score of t99
Data\risk\b1_heatwaveday_trend.csv: Risk Score of heatwave day trend
Data\risk\b1_heatwavemeanint_trend.csv: Risk Score of heatwave mean intensity trend
Data\risk\b1_t99_trend.csv: Risk Score of t99 trend
Data\risk\c1_all_risk_number.csv: Number of risk factors at each site
Data\sem\a1_effects_dfa_*_std_Sunandwind_cloud_value_lme20250612.csv: *Name of the location. Results of the SEM between-factor effect sizes are shown.
Data\tide: Tidal model.
Data\Tpercent\a1_T99_all.csv: T99 data by year for global points (in °C).
Data\Tpercent\a1_Tmean_all.csv: Tmean data by year for global points (in °C).
Data\Tpercent\a2_T99_mean_all.xls: Average T99 data in every year for global points (in °C).
Data\Tpercent\a1_T99_all.csv: Average Tmean data in every year for global points (in °C).
Code/software
Matlab R2022a
R 4.3.1
