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Data and code from: Hindcast body temperature reveals sites of amplified thermal risk in global Coastlines

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Aug 22, 2025 version files 85.93 MB

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Abstract

Identifying regions where organisms are most (and least) vulnerable to climate change remains a key focus in ecological research. However, accurately capturing the thermal stress experienced by many, if not most, organisms is challenging because body temperature, which determines physiological performance, is driven by multiple environmental factors. We hindcasted hourly body temperatures of intertidal mussels globally using a modified heat budget model and assessed thermal risks (extreme temperatures and heatwaves) and hotspots based on body temperature. Results indicated that 98.34% of global coastal mussel populations faced at least one thermal risk factor. Most thermal risk metrics exhibited a patchy, mosaic distribution. Semi-enclosed topography and western boundary currents are thermal risk amplifiers, making organisms in these regions more vulnerable than those in other regions of the same latitude. Our research demonstrates the utility of hindcast body temperature in integrating multiple thermal metrics to assess global thermal risks.