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dc.contributor.author Jay, Flora
dc.contributor.author Manel, Stéphanie
dc.contributor.author Alvarez, Nadir
dc.contributor.author Durand, Eric Y.
dc.contributor.author Thuiller, Wilfried
dc.contributor.author Holderegger, Rolf
dc.contributor.author Taberlet, Pierre
dc.contributor.author François, Olivier
dc.coverage.spatial European Alps
dc.coverage.temporal Holocene
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-17T19:34:25Z
dc.date.available 2012-02-17T19:34:25Z
dc.date.issued 2012-04-18
dc.identifier doi:10.5061/dryad.777jk760
dc.identifier.citation Jay F, Manel S, Alvarez N, Durand EY, Thuiller W, Holderegger R, Taberlet P, François O (2012) Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming. Molecular Ecology 21(10): 2354-2368.
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.37891
dc.description Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways due to adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, i.e., statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25°C to 4°C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a northeast direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2°C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km), and by 188 km for an increase of 4°C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover – measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure – was generally found to be moderate for 2°C of temperature warming. For 4°C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species, and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.
dc.relation.haspart doi:10.5061/dryad.777jk760/1
dc.relation.isreferencedby doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05541.x
dc.relation.isreferencedby PMID:22512785
dc.subject Adaptation
dc.subject Climate Change
dc.subject Ecological Genetics
dc.subject Population Genetics - Empirical
dc.subject Population Genetics - Theoretical
dc.subject Lanscape Genetics
dc.title Data from: Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming
dc.type Article *
dwc.ScientificName Androsace obtusifolia All.
dwc.ScientificName Arabis alpina L.
dwc.ScientificName Campanula barbata L.
dwc.ScientificName Cerastium uniflorum Clairv.
dwc.ScientificName Dryas octopetala L.
dwc.ScientificName Gentiana nivalis L.
dwc.ScientificName Geum montanum L.
dwc.ScientificName Geum reptans L.
dwc.ScientificName Gypsophila repens L.
dwc.ScientificName Hedysarum hedysaroides (L.) Schinz & Thell. s.l.
dwc.ScientificName Hypochaeris uniflora Vill.
dwc.ScientificName Juncus trifidus L.
dwc.ScientificName Ligusticum mutellinoides (Cr.) Vill.
dwc.ScientificName Loiseleuria procumbens (L.) Desv.
dwc.ScientificName Luzula alpinopilosa (Chaix) Breistr.
dwc.ScientificName Phyteuma hemisphaericum L.
dwc.ScientificName Rhododendron ferrugineum L.
dwc.ScientificName Saxifraga stellaris L.
dwc.ScientificName Sesleria caerulea (L.) Ard
dwc.ScientificName Trifolium alpinum L.
dc.contributor.correspondingAuthor François, Olivier
prism.publicationName Molecular Ecology

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