Biodiversity results from origination and extinction; thus there is interest in determining those traits that influence this balance. Among traits implicated in the success or failure of lineages are dispersal, colonization ability, and geographic range size. We investigate the impact of dispersal and range size on contemporary diversity in the order Rosales.

 We use the MuSSE method to explore the effects on genus-level diversification of two genus-level traits (geographic range size and within-genus proclivity to speciate), and two species traits (seed dispersal and growth habit). We then used MuHiSSE for species-level associations. Finally, we conducted a PGLS (phylogenetic least-squares) analysis to distinguish between speciation within genera versus origination of new genera.

At the species-level, animal dispersal enhances diversification rate in both woody and herbaceous lineages, while woody lineages without animal dispersal have higher extinction rates than speciation rates. At the genus level, herbaceous taxa have positive diversification rates regardless of other character states. Diversification rate variation is also explained by two interactions: (1) a three-way interaction between large geographic range, animal-mediated dispersal, and high within-genus species richness, whereby genera possessing all three traits have high diversification rates, and (2) a four-way interaction by which the three-way interaction is stronger in woody genera than in herbaceous genera.

Colonization ability may underlie the relationship between dispersal type and range size and may influence past diversification rates by decreasing extinction rates during late Cenozoic times of climate volatility. Thus, colonization ability could be used to predict future extinction risk to improve conservation success.

Please be aware that if you ask to have your user record removed, we will retain your name in the records concerning manuscripts for which you were an author, reviewer, or editor. In compliance with data protection regulations, you may request that we remove your personal registration details at any time. (Use the following URL: https://www.editorialmanager.com/ajb/login.asp?a=r). Please contact the publication office if you have any questions.

Specimen data were collected at NMNH, Missouri Botanical Garden

Geographic range and species richness from GBIF

Gene sequences downloaded from NCBI

Multiple sequence alignments via MUSCLE

Phylogeny via BEAST

Evolutionary analyses using R packages diversitree, HiSSE, and phylotools