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Dryad

Data from: Fragile coexistence of a global chytrid pathogen with amphibian populations is mediated by environment and demography

Data files

Sep 26, 2017 version files 408.06 KB

Abstract

Unravelling the multiple interacting drivers of host pathogen co-existence is crucial in understanding how an apparently stable state of endemism may shift towards an epidemic and lead to biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the apparent co-existence of the global amphibian pathogen *Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis* (Bd) with *Bombina variegata* populations in the Netherlands over a seven-year period. We used a multi-season mark-recapture data set and assessed potential drivers of co-existence (individual condition, environmental mediation and demographic compensation) at the individual and population level. We show that even in a situation with a clear cost incurred by endemic Bd, population sizes remain largely stable. Current environmental conditions and an over-dispersed pathogen load likely stabilize disease dynamics, but as higher temperatures increase infection probability, changing environmental conditions, for example a climate change-driven rise in temperature, could unbalance the current fragile host-pathogen equilibrium. Understanding the proximate mechanisms of such environmental mediation and of site-specific differences in infection dynamics can provide vital information for mitigation actions.