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Dryad

Reversing the great degradation of nature through economic development

Data files

Jul 21, 2023 version files 308.21 MB
Apr 04, 2025 version files 308.23 MB

Abstract

We analyze past and anticipated future trends in crop yields, per capita consumption, and population to estimate agricultural land requirements globally by 2050 and 2100. Assuming “business as usual,” high-income countries are expected to show little or no net growth in cropland by the end of the century whereas land requirements will nearly double in low-income countries. We consider two possible strategies that might reduce cropland expansion: decreasing   per capita caloric consumption in the high-income countries and accelerating the economic development of the low-income countries. Our analysis suggests that accelerating economic development in low-income countries would have a greater impact on reducing global cropland expansion than lowering consumption in high-income countries. Economic development would reduce population growth and improve crop yields to an extent that could more than offset increased per capita consumption in these countries. Combining the two strategies of economic development in low-income countries and reduced consumption in high-income countries could dramatically shrink global cropland requirements by the year 2100. All of these estimates are expected to be only modestly affected by moderate climate change. Although economic growth is often considered to work in opposition to environmental conservation, accelerating economic development in low-income countries could not only help alleviate poverty and increase standards of living but could also have enormous benefits for both biodiversity and global climate change.