Data from: Climatically robust multi-scale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California
Data files
Jun 20, 2024 version files 240.89 MB
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ag_agg.tif
1.36 MB
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all_road_dens.tif
3.49 MB
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barren_agg.tif
1.37 MB
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bulk_dens_agg.tif
6.38 MB
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combined-2041-thresh05.tif
1.91 MB
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desert_agg.tif
1.22 MB
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elev_agg.tif
7.25 MB
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expert_future.tif
962.35 KB
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expert-all.tif
4.83 MB
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expert-climate.tif
1.87 MB
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expert-no_human.tif
4.21 MB
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gps_ensemble.tif
7.18 MB
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gps_lowp_thresh01_climthresh.tif
881.96 KB
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gps_lowp_thresh01_future.tif
989.44 KB
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gps_lowp_thresh01.tif
1.06 MB
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gps_lowpred_ensemble.tif
6.98 MB
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grass_agg.tif
2.14 MB
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hist_pronghorn_aea.tif
2.11 MB
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hist_pronghorn_thresh05.tif
176.62 KB
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hist_pronghorn_wgs.tif
2.10 MB
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hist-2041-mean.tif
1.95 MB
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hist-2041-thresh05.tif
335.23 KB
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hsm_thresh_consensus_future.tif
1.21 MB
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hsm_thresh_consensus.tif
1.08 MB
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maj_road_dist.tif
4.15 MB
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occ_ensemble_lowp.tif
6.74 MB
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perc_clay_agg.tif
6.84 MB
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ph_agg.tif
6.37 MB
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README.md
7.35 KB
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road_dist1.tif
13.24 MB
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shrub_agg.tif
2.37 MB
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slope_agg.tif
7.39 MB
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ssf_hsm_thresh01_climthresh.tif
886.08 KB
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ssf_hsm_thresh01.tif
944.61 KB
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ssf_hsm.tif
6.75 MB
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ssf_thresh01_future.tif
927.62 KB
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summer-2041-mean.tif
3.07 MB
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summer-2041-thresh05.tif
204.70 KB
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summer-only-suit.tif
3.08 MB
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summer-proj-2041.tif
65.35 MB
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summer-thresh-15th.tif
307.89 KB
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tpi_fine_agg.tif
7.89 MB
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tri_fine_agg.tif
7.40 MB
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urban_agg.tif
1.35 MB
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winter-2041-mean.tif
2.99 MB
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winter-2041-thresh05.tif
328.76 KB
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winter-only-suit.tif
3.11 MB
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winter-proj-2041.tif
25.85 MB
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winter-thresh-15th.tif
297.51 KB
Abstract
We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in California now and into the future.
Location: California, United States
Methods: We used a consensus approach to identify areas of suitable climate now (1980-2010) and future (2031-2060) for pronghorn in California. We compared the results of models from two separate hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state, specifically the migration hypothesis and the niche reduction hypothesis. We combined occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat models: (1) an ensemble model using Random Forests, Maxent, Classification and Regression Trees, and a Generalized Linear Model; (2) a step selection function; and (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate the prospects of, pronghorn recovery.
Results: Climate suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that there will be on suitable climate in California in the future. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand. Habitat also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among all three exist in large patches throughout the state.
Main Conclusions: Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multi-method, multi-hypothesis approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and, perhaps more importantly, critical knowledge gaps that could resolve disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout the arid Southwest.
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bcc2fqzmx
Data include raw pronghorn locations and environmental predictors to generate distribution and habitat models, and the outputs of these models.
Description of the data and file structure
Data are of three kinds:
- Pronghorn locations (“all_gbif pronghorn.csv”), downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (Supplemental information on Zenodo)
- Environmental predictors used to generate habitat or climate models (all distances in meters)
- “ag_agg.tif”: proportion cover of agriculture land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- “all_road dens.tif”: density of all roads within the raster cell, derived from TIGER lines
- “barren_agg.tif”: proportion cover of barren land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- “bulk_dens agg.tif”: bulk density of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019)
- “desert_agg.tif”: proportion cover of desert land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- “elev_agg.tif”: elevation, derived from the National Elevation Dataset
- “grass_agg.tif”: proportion cover of grassland land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- “maj_road dist.tif”: distance to major roads (federal and state highways and county roads)
- “perc_clay agg.tif”: percent clay of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019)
- “ph_agg.tif”: pH of soil, derived from the Polaris soil data (Chaney et al. 2019)
- “road_dist1.tif”: distance to all roads, derived from TIGER lines
- “shrub_agg.tif”: proportion cover of shrub land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- “slope_agg.tif”: slope, derived from the National Elevation Dataset (in degrees)
- “tpi_fine-agg.tif”: topographic position index, derived from the National Elevation Dataset
- “tri_fine-agg.tif”: terrain ruggedness index, derived from the National Elevation Dataset
- “urban_agg.tif”: proportion cover of urban land type, derived from the CalFire vegetation layer
- Outputs of distribution and habitat suitability models
- “combined-2041-thresh05-max.tif”: estimated future suitability combining models of winter and summer distribution under migration hypothesis, using a threshold to include 95% of pronghorn occurrences in the contemporary model
- “expert-all.tif”: output of the expert-driven suitability model
- “expert_future.tif”: expert driven suitability model, clipped to areas of projected future climate suitability
- “expert-climate.tif”: expert driven suitability model, clipped to areas of estimated contemporary climate suitability
- “expert-no_human.tif”: expert driven suitability model, with all human-dominated (i.e. urban and agriculture) layers removed
- “gps_ensemble.tif”: ensemble model of habitat suitability based on GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California
- “gps_low-p-thresh01-climthresh.tif”: reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points and clipped to areas of contemporary suitability
- “gps_lowp-thresho01-future.tif”: reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points and clipped to areas of future suitability
- “gps_lowp-thresh01.tif”: reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data, thresholded to include 99% of all GPS points
- “gps_lowpred-ensemble.tif”: reduced predictor ensemble model of suitability based on GPS data
- “hist_pronghorn-aea.tif” and “hist-pronghorn-wgs.tif”: model of pronghorn climatic suitability in California based on niche reduction hypothesis using historical distribution of pronghorn (aea = Albers Equal Area projection; WGS = unprojected, dataum = WGS84)
- “hist_pronghorn-thresh05.tif”: model of pronghorn climatic suitability in California based on niche reduction hypothesis using historical distribution of pronghorn, thresholded to include 95% of historical pronghorn locations
- “hist-2041-mean.tif”: mean future climatic suitability projected for 2041-2060 based on niche reduction hypothesis
- “hist-2041-thresh05.tif”: sum of all future climatic suitability projections based on niche reduction hypothesis, thresholded to include 95% of historical pronghorn locations
- “hsm_thresh-consensus-future.tif”: sum of all future climatic suitability projections from ensemble suitability model, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn locations
- “hsm_thresh-consensus.tif”: mean of all future climatic suitability projections from ensemble suitability model
- “occ_ensemble-lowp.tif”: ensemble model of habitat suitability using occurrences collected by California Department of Fish and Wildlife and a reduced set of habitat predictors
- “ssf_hsm.tif”: contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California
- “ssf_hsm-thresh01.tif”: contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations
- “ssf_hsm-thresh01-climthresh.tif”: contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations and clipped to contemporary climate suitability
- “ssf_thresh01-future.tif”: contemporary habitat suitability model based on step-selection function using GPS data from three pronghorn populations in California, thresholded to include 99% of pronghorn GPS locations and clipped to future climate suitability
- “summer-only-suit.tif”: model of contemporary climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis
- “summer_thresh-15th.tif”: model of contemporary climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis clipped to include 85% of all pronghorn locations
- “summer-proj-2041.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, stack of all scenarios
- “summer-2041-mean.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, mean
- “summer-2041-thresh05.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in summer for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, summed all thresholds
- “winter-only-suit.tif”: model of contemporary climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis
- “winter_thresh-15th.tif”: model of contemporary climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis clipped to include 85% of all pronghorn locations
- “winter-proj-2041.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, stack of all scenarios
- “winter-2041-mean.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, mean
- “winter-2041-thresh05.tif”: model of future climatic suitability in winter for pronghorn under migration hypothesis, summed all thresholds