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Dryad

GF4ACE -- Data from: Reanalysis-based global radiative response to sea surface temperature patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 climate emulator

Van Loon, Senne1; Rugenstein, Maria1; Barnes, Elizabeth A.1

Published Mar 04, 2025 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d2547d8cf

Data files

Mar 04, 2025 version files 46.20 MB

Abstract

The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation can be estimated with Green's function simulations by locally perturbing the sea surface temperature boundary conditions in atmospheric climate models. We perform such simulations with the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE), a machine learning-based emulator trained on ERA5 reanalysis data (ACE2-ERA5). This produces a sensitivity map of the top-of-atmosphere radiative response to surface warming that aligns with our physical understanding of radiative feedback. However, ACE2-ERA5 likely underestimates the radiative response to historical warming. We argue that Green's function experiments can be used to evaluate the performance and limitations of machine learning-based climate emulators by examining if causal physical relationships are correctly represented and testing their capability for out-of-distribution predictions.