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Dryad

Connectivity for climate change adaptation in California

Schloss, Carrie1; Cameron, D. Richard1; McRae, Brad1; Theobald, David2; Jones, Aaron1

Published Jun 04, 2021 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d7wm37q1m

Data files

Jun 04, 2021 version files 17.17 MB

Abstract

This spatial data identifies connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. Present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes were combined into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, were identified as the areas where the Omniscape model indicated more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. The model was run for two different projections of future climate (CNRM_CM5 and HADGEM2-ES). Climate linkages from both models were overlaid with a strategic present-day connectivity framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action.

This connectivity model is a structural, coarse filter approach that explicitly incorporates human modification as a factor that will limit movement for species moving in response to climate change as that has been shown to pose an additional threat to climate-driven movement. This approach also addresses the multiple scales at which suitable climates may drive species distributions by modeling connectivity between the broad shifts in coarsely-defined climate “space” along routes with finer-scale topoclimate diversity. Finally, it accounts for the longer timeframes and incremental movements necessary for multi-generational range shifts by incorporating the likelihood of climate-driven movement across microclimate stepping-stones.

This approach includes the following assumptions:

  1. Species will move towards locations where the future climate is analogous to the present-day climate they are experiencing.
  2. Species range shifts often require multi-generational movements over a longer temporal period, and therefore, routes that provide microclimate stepping stones with habitat suitable for all phases of a species’ life-cycle are needed.
  3. Topoclimate diversity confers microclimate diversity and therefore is more likely to provide suitable climate options, facilitating dispersal for species tracking suitable climate.