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Dryad

Computer code for a model describing the emergence of a long transient regular spatial pattern from interaction of competing aquatic macrophytes and a biocontrol agent

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Nov 13, 2024 version files 42.66 KB

Abstract

A spatially explicit simulation model was developed for competition between floating (FAV) and submersed (SAV) aquatic vegetation in which an insect biocontrol agent (weevil) consumes FAV biomass. In all simulations, a dynamic regular striped pattern of rock-scissors-paper (weevil-FAV-SAV) eventually forms and persists for thousands of days despite stochastic disturbances in the form of added adult weevils. At some point in the simulation, depending on the random number initiator, an apparently insignificant spatial deviation in small set of pixels triggers an instability that grows rapidly until the striped pattern has been replaced by a chaotic-appearing pattern. Investigation shows that the time lags involved in the weevil life cycle and assumptions on spatial movement lead to the instability and end of long transient.  This research reveals the detailed mechanisms by which a long transient striped pattern transitions to an irregular pattern, offering insights into how spatial pattern form and change.