Redesigning Modern Portfolio Theory to Improve Spatial Recovery Planning for Oregon Coast (OC) Coho Salmon
Abstract
Oregon Coast (OC) coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) are a federally listed threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. It is integral to conserve this species due to their ecological importance in nutrient cycling and cultural significance to Indigenous peoples. The combination of their threatened status and significance creates a sense of urgency for conservation organizations, like the Wild Salmon Center, to efficiently allocate their budgets. In this project we redesigned Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimize habitat restoration spending. MPT is traditionally used in finance to inform portfolio managers what the risks and returns are of investing in different portfolios of assets. In our redesigned application, the 21 populations of OC coho salmon are treated as assets, with the increase of salmon abundance and variance directly relating to the amount of money allocated to conserve each population. More specifically, we applied our new approach to mitigating barriers that inhibit salmon from traveling back to their natal streams. To do this, we gathered and collected data on fish passage barriers, average project costs to remove barriers, and estimated how removing barriers would affect the abundance of coho salmon. We analyzed portfolios under multiple budgets and scenarios that prioritize conservation spending in watersheds important to Indigenous peoples. This endogenous application is the first of its kind in the conservation field and can be applied to a multitude of species or restoration actions beyond OC coho salmon and barrier mitigation.
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pvmcvdntm
In this project, we redesigned Modern Portfolio Theory as an endogenous framework. To do this, we developed a model, based on the Beverton-Holt population model, in R to calculate the impact of conservation investment on OC Coho Salmon spawner abundance in the Pacific Northwest. Our model considered barrier impact data and cost data to estimate how many fish would return to the population for every dollar spent on conservation projects, given a budget constraint, and aggregated those results to the ESU level. This resulted in the total ESU fish abundance and total ESU variance calculated for each population, which was visualized along an efficiency frontier. This frontier can inform conservation managers how to allocate funds to maximize salmon returns for a given level of variance. The code for our model can be found in our GitHub repository.
To replicate our GIS analysis, refer to the GIS_readme.docx file, which outlines the steps to implement our barrier analysis using ModelBuilder in ArcGIS Pro.
Files
- Adult OC Coho Abundance
- OC Coho Abundance.xlsx
- Reaches
- reach_alsea.shp
- reach_coos.shp
- reach_Coquille.shp
- reach_Necanicum.shp
- reach_nehl.shp
- reach_NorthUmpqua.shp
- reach_Salmon.shp
- reach_siletz.shp
- reach_Siu1.shp
- reach_Siu3.shp
- reach_Siu4.shp
- reach_SouthUmpqua
- reach_Umpqua
- reach_Wilson
- reach_Yaquina
- reach_siul.gdb
- reach_siul.shp
- Population Boundaries
- SAP_Watersheds.shp
- alesa_population.shp
- beaver_population.shp
- coos_population.shp
- coquille_population.shp
- floras_population.shp
- lower_ump_population.shp
- mid_ump_population.shp
- necanicum_population.shp
- nehalem_population.shp
- nestucca_population.shp
- north_ump_population.shp
- salmon_population.shp
- siletz_population.shp
- siltcoos_population.shp
- siuslaw_population.shp
- sixes_population.shp
- south_ump_population.shp
- tenmile_population.shp
- tillamook_population.shp
- yaquina_population.shp
- Oregon Fish Passage Barriers
- ofpbds_pt.lpk
- Cost
- cost_data.xlsx
Adult OC Coho Abundance
Sharing/Access information
Data was derived from the following sources:
- This dataset was given to us by our client, the Wild Salmon Center, but was sourced through the Oregon Adult Salmonid Inventory & Sampling Project run by the Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife (ODFW).
- Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW). 2019. Oregon Adult Salmonid Inventory & Sampling Project (OASIS). ODFW, Salem, Oregon, USA. [online] URL: https://odfw-oasis.forestry.oregonstate.edu/coho-salmon-data
Data Specific Information:
OC Coho Abundance.xlsx
- Rows: 31
- Columns: 22
- Variable List:
- year: year of salmon return from 1994 - 2019
- alsea: salmon returner abundance for the population Alsea
- beaver: salmon returner abundance for the population Alsea
- coos: salmon returner abundance for the population Coos
- coquille: salmon returner abundance for the population Coquille
- floras: salmon returner abundance for the population Floras
- Lower Umpqua: salmon returner abundance for the population Lower Umpqua
- Middle Umpqua: salmon returner abundance for the population Middle Umpqua
- Necanicum: salmon returner abundance for the population Necanicum
- Nehalem: salmon returner abundance for the population Nehalem
- Salmon: salmon returner abundance for the population Salmon
- Siletz: salmon returner abundance for the population Siletz
- Siltcoos: salmon returner abundance for the population Siltcoos
- Siuslaw: salmon returner abundance for the population Siuslaw
- Sixes: salmon returner abundance for the population Alsea
- South Umpqua: salmon returner abundance for the population South Umpqua
- Tahkenitch: salmon returner abundance for the population Alsea
- Tenmile: salmon returner abundance for the population Tenmile
- Tillamook: salmon returner abundance for the population Tillamook
- Yaquina: salmon returner abundance for the population Yaquina
Code/Software
This is data was used for the bulk of our analysis that can be found in the link to our GitHub repository.
Instrument or software needed to interpret the data: RStudio or Microsoft Excel
Reaches
Sharing/Access information
Links to other publicly accessible locations of the data:
Data was derived from the following sources:
- All files were given to us by our client, the Wild Salmon Center. This dataset was also created for the Wild Salmon Center by Terrainworks with added variables using the USGS National Hydrography Dataset for each individual shapefile.
- U.S. Geological Survey (2019) National Hydrography Dataset (ver. USGS National Hydrography Dataset Best Resolution (NHD) for Hydrologic Unit (HU) 8, accessed March 1, 2023 at URL https://www.usgs.gov/national-hydrography/access-national-hydrography-products
- All files that are denoted under ‘Reach Data’ all are publicly available to download from the above link.
- Master Attribute table that can be applied to all .shp files can be found here: https://www.netmaptools.org/Pages/NetMapHelp/master_attribute_list.htm?mw=MzQ2&st=MQ==&sct=MA==&ms=AAAAAAA=
- All files that are denoted under ‘Reach Data’ all are publicly available to download from the above link.
Data Specific Information:
Not all 74 variables (columns) listed in files were used. More detailed metadata describing all collumns can be found in the ‘Sharing/Access Information’ section above. The project only used two variables ID: Stream and IDSTRM_ORDER: Stream Order (Strahler)for files described below:
reach_Alsea.shp
- Rows: 77,803
reach_coos.shp
- Rows: 64,674
reach_Coquille.shp
- Rows: 130,970
reach_Necanicum.shp
- Rows: 16,760
reach_nehl.shp
- Rows: 106,913
reach_NorthUmpqua.shp
- Rows: 100,234
reach_Salmon.shp
- Rows: 5,846
Data - Specific Information:
reach_siletz.shp
- Rows: 29,427
reach_siltcoos.shp
- Rows: 29,437
reach_siltcoos.shp
- Rows: 16,760
reach_SouthUmpqua.shp
- Rows: 167,119
reach_Umpqua.shp
- Rows: 169,416
reach_Wilson.shp
- Rows: 169,416
reach_Yaquina.shp
- Rows: 23,779
reach_siul.gdb
- Rows: 77,880
Code/Software
This is data was used to generate our barrier_data output in ArcGIS Pro’s Modelbuilder and exported as .csv files. The .csv files were used simultaneously with the abundance data in our model in RStudio. All code to run analysis are located in our GitHub repository.
Instrument or software needed to interpret the data: ArcGIS Pro 3.3 or earlier verisons
Population Boundaries
Sharing/Access information
Data was derived from the following sources:
- This dataset was given to us by our client, the Wild Salmon Center.
- Wild Salmon Center, Strategic Action Plan - OC Coho Salmon Watershed. Coast Coho Partnership, Downloaded September 2023.
Data Specific Information:
The listed shape files share the same characteristics as further described below:
- SAP_Watersheds.shp
- alsea_populations.shp
- beaver_population.shp
- coos_population.shp
- coquille_population.shp
- floras_population.shp
- lower_ump_population.shp
- mid_ump_population.shp
- necanicum_population.shp
- nehalem_population.shp
- nestucca_population.shp
- north_ump_population.shp
- salmon_population.shp
- siletz_population.shp
- siltcoos_population.shp
- siuslaw_population.shp
- sixes_population.shp
- south_ump_population.shp
- tenmile_population.shp
- tillamook_population.shp
- yaquina_population.shp
Descritpion:
Columns: 7
- Variables:
- FID: field for all populations, default is 0.
- Shape: Type of data
- MIDLEVEL_G: Location in the ESU
- Mid - Coast
- Mid - South Coast
- Umpqua
- North Coast
- Lakes
- POPULATION: Population Name
- Shape_Leng: Shape Length of population border (M)
- Shape_Area: Shape Area of population (M)
- sharpes: Unknown
Code/Software
This is data was used to generate our barrier_data output in ArcGIS Pro’s Modelbuilder by using the population outlines to clip the barrier data to each population. The .csv files were used simultaneously with the abundance data in our model in RStudio. In addition, the polygons were used to generate visualizations using ArcGIS Pro. The .csv files were used simultaneously with the abundance data in our model in RStudio. All code to run analysis are located in our GitHub repository.
Instrument or software needed to interpret the data: ArcGIS Pro 3.3 or earlier versions.
Oregon Fish Passage Barriers
Sharing/Access information
Links to other publicly accessible locations of the data:
- Data Basin - Oregon Fish Passage Barriers uploaded by Conservation Biology Institute
- https://databasin.org/datasets/668516a57c0c4accb2d478716013f189/
- Detailed Metadata can be found in the ‘Attributes Tab’
Data was derived from the following sources:
- This dataset was given to us by our client, the Wild Salmon Center, but was sourced through ODFW’s Fish Barrier Data collected through their Natural Resources Information Management Program.
- Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. (2024). Oregon Fish Passage Barrier Prioritization Database. Retrieved from https://nrimp.dfw.state.or.us/nrimp/default.aspx?pn=fishbarrierdata
Data Specific Information:
ofpdbds_pt.lpk
- Rows: 40,118
- Columns: 72
- Variables:
- For this project, all 72 variables were not used. Provided are the variables that were relevant to the project. More detailed metadata can be found in the ‘Sharing/Access Information’ section above.
- fpbFtrTy: The type of fish passage barrier
- fpbFPasSta: Passability status for each barrier
- Unknown
- Blocked
- Partial
- Passable
- UnkAnad, this variable is treated as ‘Unknown’
- For this project, all 72 variables were not used. Provided are the variables that were relevant to the project. More detailed metadata can be found in the ‘Sharing/Access Information’ section above.
Code/Software
This is data was used to generate our barrier_data output in ArcGIS Pro’s Modelbuilder by mapping the location of each fish passage barrier to a specific population and exported as .csv files. The .csv files were used simultaneously with the abundance data in our model in RStudio. In addition, the polygons were used to generate visualizations using ArcGIS Pro. The .csv files were used simultaneously with the abundance data in our model in RStudio. All code to run analysis are located in our GitHub repository.
Instrument or software needed to interpret the data: ArcGIS Pro 3.3 or earlier versions.
Cost
Sharing/Access information
Data was derived from the following sources:
- This dataset was downloaded from the Oregon Watershed Restoration Inventory managed by the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board (OWEB). The OWEB has tabular data of the inventory which was downloaded as an excel file.
- Oregon Explorer (2022). Enhancing Watersheds in Oregon Database. [OWRI Excel Spreadsheet]. Retrieved from https://oregonexplorer.info/content/enhancing-watersheds-oregon?topic=56&ptopic=38#TheOWRIDatabaseandGISdata
- Detailed Metadata can be found when ‘OWRI Data Dictionary’ is downloaded from the above link.
Data - Specific Information:
cost_data.xlsx
- Rows: 19,743
- Columns: 75
- Tabs: 15
- Variables:
- Provided are the variables that were relevant to the project. More detailed metadata can be found in the ‘Sharing/Access Information’ section above.
- ProjectID: Unique identifier, database record number auto-generated by SQL Server
- ProjName: Project name
- TotalCash: Total cash cost of project ($)
- StartYear: Project start year (1995 - 2022)
- CompleteYear: Project completation year (1995 - 2022)
- drvdProjDesc: Brief description of project activities –this is not completed by the respondent. It is populated after data entry and QA/QC as time permits.
- Provided are the variables that were relevant to the project. More detailed metadata can be found in the ‘Sharing/Access Information’ section above.
- Adult Coho Salmon Spawner data: This dataset was given to us by our client, the Wild Salmon Center, but was sourced through the Oregon Adult Salmonid Inventory & Sampling Project run by the Oregon Department of Fish & Widlife (ODFW).
- National Hydrography Reaches: All files were given to us by our client the Wild Salmon Center. Each file were given and downloaded as .shp files for each individual population in the OC coho Salmon Evolutionary Significant Unit (ESU). These files were created specifically for the Wild Salmon Center and NOAA by Terrainworks using USGS' National Hydrography Dataset. Many variables are outputs of different climate models ran by Terrainworks using the variables within USGS' orginal hydrography dataset. These .shp files were used to better understand stream habitat within the ESU.
- Population Boundaries: All files were given to us by our client the Wild Salmon Center as a .shp file with all populations included. Each individual population was then exported to its own .shp file. All population boundaries were used to clip the reach data and barrier data in ArcGIS Pro to only look at ESU specific attributes.
- Oregon Fish Passage Barriers: This dataset was sourced from ODFW's Fish Barrier Data basin. The barrer data for the state of Oregon was downloaded as a layer package. For our project, the layer package was clipped by each individual population boundary .shp files. This allowed us to isolate the barriers that are within the ESU.
- Cost Data: The cost data was collected by downloading a .xlsx file from the Oregon Watershed Restoration Inventory and it managed by the the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. The inventory contains information on self reported restoration projects that have taken place in Oregon from 1995 - 2022. The file was then filtered by project type. All project types that involved bridges, culverts, dams, waterfalls, tide gates, fords, and cascades were used in our analysis. Each project type was given its own tab in the .xlsx file to calculate an average cost for each barrier type. The average cost was then applied to our barrier data where each barrier type received it's estimated cost to mitgate. This data informed our R model to estimate the impacts of barrier mitgation on adult salmon population returns.