Skip to main content
Dryad

Future abundance and distribution of key bird species for pathogen transmission in the Netherlands

Data files

Oct 25, 2024 version files 57.32 MB

Abstract

We have modelled the current and future abundance and distribution of three different bird species in the Netherlands: blackbirds, mallards, and house sparrows. These are all species which are widespread in north-western Europe and which are likely to play a role in the transmission of several pathogens. We used random forest models created using the SDMaps R package. Climate, land use, and vegetative cover were all found to be important predictors. We found that the abundance of mallards and house sparrows is expected to increase in the future, while the abundance of blackbirds shows little change. These changes will likely have consequences for disease risk. By providing these future abundance maps, we are enabling detailed modelling of the future risk of disease outbreaks.