Skip to main content
Dryad

Global climate model comparisons of niche evolution in Turritelline gastropods across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Data files

Mar 20, 2025 version files 15 MB

Abstract

Paleo-Ecological Niche Modeling (PaleoENM) aims to map the distributions of extinct species using paleo-coordinates of fossils and local environmental data. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been widely used to estimate climate conditions in deep time, they have primarily been applied to the terrestrial vertebrate record. Furthermore, variations in paleo-elevation models used in GCM construction can significantly influence the outcomes of PaleoENM. This study addresses two main objectives: (1) to investigate whether changing climatic factors drove niche shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in the shelly marine invertebrate group, the tower snails (Turritellidae: Turritellinae), and (2) to compare the effects of two different paleo-elevation models on the results of GCM-based predictions of species distribution. Fossil occurrence data from the Maastrichtian and Danian time periods were obtained from the Paleobiology Database, supplemented by museum collections and published literature. Environmental data were extracted from atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations using the HadCM3L model, applying two different sets of paleogeographic and CO2 boundary conditions: Scotese-based and Getech-based. Additional sedimentology and depositional environment data were sourced from the Paleobiology Database (PBDB). We predicted the distributions of Turritellines using the maximum entropy (MaxentMaxEnt) algorithm and performed niche similarity analysis using principal component analysis and kernel density estimation. We found significant differences in the spatial arrangement of suitable habitats between the Maastrichtian and Danian time periods across GCMs. The results also showed that the Getech-based GCM outperformed the Scotese-based GCM in terms of model metrics. Niche overlap across both time periods was high, with niche similarity and equivalency being higher than expected by chance within both GCMs. Our results also suggest that differences in elevation model boundary conditions led to variations in the predicted distribution and niche patterns. This study provides a novel approach to understanding ecological resilience and niche change in invertebrate taxa after mass extinction events. It also explores the robustness of varying GCM boundary conditions on PaleoENM studies and offers a framework for future paleoecological research on fossil invertebrate taxa.