Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Authors: Grant Falvo and G. Philip Robertson

Affiliations: Department of Plant, Soil, and Microbial Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824

Email: grant.falvo@nau.edu

Author Contributions: GF contributed to the manuscript conception, data collection, data analysis, the original manuscript draft, and manuscript revisions. GPR contributed to study design, data collection, manuscript revisions, and funding acquisition.

Competing Interest Statement: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: Climate change, land use change, nature-based climate solutions, radiative forcing, greenhouse gas

Abstract

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the deforestation of an ecoregion of the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m-2), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of the greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture provided a modest -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m-2 of climate mitigation, short/medium length forestry rotations provided more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m-2, and natural forest regeneration provided the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m-2. As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

This compressed directory contains the following files.

• Final mean instantaneous radiative forcing for each scenario
  • NBCS_scenario_final_component_RF_means_by_experimental_unit.csv
  • Historical_scenario_final_component_RF_means_by_experimental_unit.csv
  • Land use descriptions found in Table_S1.csv
  • Metadata found in NBCS_and_Historical_scenario_final_component_RF_means_by_experimental_unit_metadata.csv
  • Code for generating this dataset and the figures and tables in the manuscript found in radiative_forcing_timeseries_generation_script.R
• Annual time series of greenhouse gas fluxes and albedo-induced changes to top of atmosphere outgoing shortwave radiation
  • ghg_and_albedo_timeseries.csv
  • Metadata found in ghg_and_albedo_timeseries_metadata.csv
• Soil N2O and CH4 fluxes
  • Data found in soil_n2o_ch4_flux_data.csv
  • Metadata found in soil_n2o_ch4_flux_metadata.csv
  • NA denotes not applicable
• Soil carbon, nitrogen, bulk density, and root biomass
  • Data found in soil_and_root_data.csv
  • Metadata found in soil_and_root_metadata.csv
  • NA denotes not applicable
• Land surface albedo
  • Data found in land_surface_albedo_data.csv
  • Metadata found in land_surface_albedo_metadata.csv
  • NA denotes not applicable
• Gridded witness tree aboveground biomass
  • Settlement Aboveground Biomass, Stem Density, and Basal Area, Midwest US, Level1
  • Data found at https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/801601af769fa5acade1ef07f6892bdd
• U.S. Forest Inventory Analysis Program
  • Data acquired with the rFIA R package
  • Citation found at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104664
• Biomass burning and plant species richness
  • Data acquired from https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/311 and https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/291
• Harvest revenue
  • Plant data acquired from https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/51, https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/158, https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/44
  • Price data acquired from U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service and Michigan Department of Natural Resources https://www2.dnr.state.mi.us/ftp/forestry/tsreports/StumpagePriceReports/