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Dryad

Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change

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Oct 11, 2024 version files 569.22 KB

Abstract

The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution or increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remained obscure under the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus, and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple sharing socioeconomic pathway scenarios within multiple time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that apart from Ixodes scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and northward shift, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe, and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have potential reference significance for public health decision-making of tick-borne pathogens.