Reversing the great degradation of nature through economic development
Data files
Jul 21, 2023 version files 308.21 MB
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AreaHarvested.csv
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baretobare.csv
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baretoclosedforest.csv
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baretoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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baretocropland.csv
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baretograssland.csv
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baretomosiaccrop.csv
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baretoopenforest.csv
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baretootherforest.csv
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baretoshrubland.csv
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baretosparseveg.csv
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baretourban.csv
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baretowetland.csv
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CalorieStats.csv
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closedforesttobare.csv
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closedforesttoclosedforest.csv
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closedforesttoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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closedforesttocropland.csv
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closedforesttograssland.csv
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closedforesttomosiaccrop.csv
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closedforesttoopenforest.csv
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closedforesttootherforest.csv
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closedforesttoshrubland.csv
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closedforesttosparseveg.csv
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closedforesttourban.csv
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closedforesttowetland.csv
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closedtoopenforesttobare.csv
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closedtoopenforesttoclosedforest.csv
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closedtoopenforesttoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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closedtoopenforesttocropland.csv
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closedtoopenforesttograssland.csv
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closedtoopenforesttomosiaccrop.csv
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closedtoopenforesttoopenforest.csv
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closedtoopenforesttootherforest.csv
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closedtoopenforesttoshrubland.csv
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closedtoopenforesttosparseveg.csv
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closedtoopenforesttourban.csv
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closedtoopenforesttowetland.csv
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countrygroupsjune142023.csv
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croplandtobare.csv
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croplandtoclosedforest.csv
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croplandtoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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croplandtocropland.csv
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croplandtograssland.csv
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croplandtomosiaccrop.csv
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croplandtoopenforest.csv
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croplandtootherforest.csv
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croplandtoshrubland.csv
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croplandtosparseveg.csv
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croplandtourban.csv
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croplandtowetland.csv
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grasslandtobare.csv
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grasslandtoclosedforest.csv
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grasslandtoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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grasslandtocropland.csv
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grasslandtograssland.csv
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grasslandtomosiaccrop.csv
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grasslandtoopenforest.csv
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grasslandtootherforest.csv
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grasslandtoshrubland.csv
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grasslandtosparseveg.csv
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grasslandtourban.csv
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grasslandtowetland.csv
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HarvHaCroplanHaRatio.csv
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Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).csv
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Ivoire.csv
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IvoireInput.csv
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kcalconspercperyr.csv
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KcalProduction.csv
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mosiaccroptobare.csv
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mosiaccroptoclosedforest.csv
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mosiaccroptoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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mosiaccroptocropland.csv
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mosiaccroptograssland.csv
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mosiaccroptomosiaccrop.csv
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mosiaccroptoopenforest.csv
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mosiaccroptootherforest.csv
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mosiaccroptoshrubland.csv
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mosiaccroptosparseveg.csv
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mosiaccroptourban.csv
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mosiaccroptowetland.csv
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NewPanelwoGDP.csv
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NoClimateChangeV6.csv
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openforesttobare.csv
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openforesttoclosedforest.csv
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openforesttoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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openforesttocropland.csv
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openforesttograssland.csv
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openforesttomosiaccrop.csv
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openforesttoopenforest.csv
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openforesttootherforest.csv
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openforesttoshrubland.csv
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openforesttosparseveg.csv
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openforesttourban.csv
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openforesttowetland.csv
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otherforesttobare.csv
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otherforesttoclosedforest.csv
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otherforesttoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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otherforesttocropland.csv
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otherforesttograssland.csv
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otherforesttomosiaccrop.csv
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otherforesttoopenforest.csv
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otherforesttootherforest.csv
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otherforesttoshrubland.csv
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otherforesttosparseveg.csv
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otherforesttourban.csv
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otherforesttowetland.csv
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popIvoire.csv
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Population_E_All_Data_(Normalized).csv
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Production_Crops_E_All_Data_(Normalized).csv
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README.md
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shrublandtobare.csv
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shrublandtoclosedforest.csv
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shrublandtoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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shrublandtocropland.csv
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shrublandtograssland.csv
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shrublandtomosiaccrop.csv
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shrublandtoopenforest.csv
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shrublandtootherforest.csv
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shrublandtoshrubland.csv
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shrublandtosparseveg.csv
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shrublandtourban.csv
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shrublandtowetland.csv
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sparsevegtobare.csv
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sparsevegtoclosedforest.csv
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sparsevegtoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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sparsevegtocropland.csv
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sparsevegtograssland.csv
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sparsevegtomosiaccrop.csv
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sparsevegtoopenforest.csv
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sparsevegtootherforest.csv
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sparsevegtoshrubland.csv
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sparsevegtosparseveg.csv
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sparsevegtourban.csv
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sparsevegtowetland.csv
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SSP1_RCP45V6.csv
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urbantobare.csv
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urbantoclosedforest.csv
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urbantoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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urbantocropland.csv
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urbantograssland.csv
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urbantomosiaccrop.csv
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urbantoopenforest.csv
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urbantootherforest.csv
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urbantoshrubland.csv
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urbantosparseveg.csv
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urbantourban.csv
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urbantowetland.csv
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USAbandonByStateUpdateDec192020.csv
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USHistoryByRegionUpdateDec192020.csv
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USkcals.csv
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USkcalsSmoothed.csv
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USPopulation.csv
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USYieldeUpdateFeb22021.csv
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wetlandtobare.csv
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wetlandtoclosedforest.csv
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wetlandtoclosedtoopenforest.csv
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wetlandtocropland.csv
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wetlandtograssland.csv
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wetlandtomosiaccrop.csv
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wetlandtoopenforest.csv
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wetlandtootherforest.csv
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wetlandtoshrubland.csv
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wetlandtosparseveg.csv
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wetlandtourban.csv
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wetlandtowetland.csv
Abstract
We analyze past and anticipated future trends in crop yields, per capita consumption, and population to estimate agricultural land requirements globally by 2050 and 2100. Assuming “business as usual,” higher-income countries are expected to show little or no net growth in cropland by the end of the century, even in the face of moderate climate change. In contrast, in lower-income countries, we project that land requirements will grow dramatically, and climate change will likely double this expansion. Although economic growth is often considered to work in opposition to conservation, accelerating economic development in lower-income countries, which would help alleviate poverty and increase standards of living, would also greatly reduce potential cropland expansion in lower-income countries, even with climate change, owing to slower population growth and improved crop yields that more than offset increased per capita consumption. Combining economic development in low-income countries with reduced consumption in high-income countries could dramatically shrink global cropland requirements by the year 2100 even with moderate climate change. Such a remarkable reduction in cropland area would have enormous benefits for both biodiversity and global climate change.
Usage notes
All of the data files are analyzed using R.