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Dryad

Discretized U.S. drought data to support statistical modeling

Data files

May 25, 2023 version files 1.18 GB
Oct 20, 2023 version files 1.40 GB
Mar 14, 2024 version files 1.59 GB

Abstract

Drought is a costly and disruptive natural disaster, with widespread implications for agriculture, wildfire, and urban planning.  We present a novel data set on US drought built to enable computationally efficient spatio-temporal statistical and probabilistic models of drought. We converted drought data obtained from the widely-used US Drought Monitor (USDM) from continuous shape files to a 0.5-degree regular lattice. These data cover the Continental US from 2000 to mid-2022. Known environmental drivers of drought include those obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) teleconnections data. The USGS streamflow data is itself a new gridded data product, aggregating point-referenced stream discharges from across the US to a common lattice using watersheds to combine nearby stream data. The resulting data set permits statistical and probabilistic modeling of drought with explicit spatial and/or temporal dependence.  Such models could be used to forecast short-range and even season-to-season future droughts with uncertainty, extending the reach and value of the current US Drought Outlook produced by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.