Published Oct 01, 2019
on Dryad.
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hc627cj
Cite this dataset
Fenton, Lynda et al. (2019). Data from: Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries. [Dataset]. Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hc627cj
Abstract
Objective
Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally, and to assess the timing of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.
Setting
Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England & Wales, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, USA.
Methods
We used life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy change for 24 high-income countries over five-year periods from 1992 to 2016, and the change for Scotland for five-year periods from 1857 to 2016. One- and two-break segmented regression models were applied to mortality data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) to identify turning points in age-standardised mortality trends between 1990 and 2018.
Results
In 2012-2016 life expectancies in Scotland increased by 2.5 weeks/year for females and 4.5 weeks/year for males, the smallest gains of any period since the early 1970s. The improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016 were smallest among females (<2.0 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland, Iceland, England & Wales and the USA and among males (<5.0 weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England & Wales and Scotland. Japan, Korea, and countries of Eastern Europe have seen substantial gains in the same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 Q4 for males and the year to 2014 Q2 for females.
Conclusion
Life expectancy improvement has stalled across many, but not all, high income countries. The recent change in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014. Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments must also take timely action on plausible contributors.
Methods
Description of methods used for collection/generation of data:
The HMD has a detailed methods protocol available here:
https://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf
The ONS and NRS also have similar methods for ensuring data consistency and quality assurance.
Methods for processing the data:
The segmented regression was conducted using the 'segmented' package in R. The recommended references to this package and its approach are here:
Vito M. R. Muggeo (2003). Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Statistics in Medicine, 22, 3055-3071.
Vito M. R. Muggeo (2008). segmented: an R Package to Fit Regression Models with Broken-Line Relationships. R News, 8/1,
20-25. URL https://cran.r-project.org/doc/Rnews/.
Vito M. R. Muggeo (2016). Testing with a nuisance parameter present only under the alternative: a score-based approach with
application to segmented modelling. J of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86, 3059-3067.
Vito M. R. Muggeo (2017). Interval estimation for the breakpoint in segmented regression: a smoothed score-based approach.
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 59, 311-322.
Software- or Instrument-specific information needed to interpret the data, including software and hardware version numbers:
The analyses were conducted in R version 3.6.1 and Microsoft Excel 2013.
Please see README.txt for further information
Usage notes
HMD international_updated Jan 2019.xlsx
Comprises 20 worksheets, of which 14 contain data.
These data are arranged by country and by year.
Missing data codes: ""
The tab 'contents and sources' provides descriptions of the data source and contents of each sheet.
HMD Scotland time trend analysis.xlsx
Comprises 5 worksheets, including a combination of data and charts.
The sheet 'contents' describes the data source and contents of other sheets.
The variables include year, life expectancy, and various measures of change in life expectancy
Missing data codes: ""
Segmented regression chart.xlsx
Comprises 2 worksheets, 'Data' and 'Chart'.
Variables within the 'data' worksheet include:
Year
4 quarter rolling period ending
Female observed mortality rate
Female predicted by one-break model
Female predicted by two-break model
Male observed mortality rate
Male predicted by one-break model
Male predicted by two-break model
Chart breakpoint indicator
Missing data codes: (blank space)
Summary findings from segmented regression.xlsx
Excel workbook containing table 1 of paper 'summary of results of segmented regression by population group and model/test'