Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species' habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially-explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily-available spatial data, is suitable for a wide range of species and habitats, and invites comparison between different species. We apply our methods to a case study of two species of montane mammals, the American pika Ochotona princeps and the yellow-bellied marmot Marmota flaviventris.
Sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps of Marmota flaviventris.
Zipped file containing sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps for the IUCN range map of Marmota flaviventris. Exposure and vulnerability maps are based on the MIROC5 global climate model projections for 2050 and for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.
Marmota flaviventris.zip
Sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps for Ochotona princeps.
Zipped file containing sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps for the IUCN range map of Ochotona princeps. Exposure and vulnerability maps are based on the MIROC5 global climate model projections for 2050 and for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.
Ochotona princeps.zip
Sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability predictions for Marmota flaviventris
Zipped file containing sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps with predictions outside the range of Marmota flaviventris. Exposure and vulnerability maps are based on the MIROC5 global climate model projections for 2050 and for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.
Marmota flaviventris predictions.zip
Sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability predictions for Ochotona princeps
Zipped file containing sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability maps with predictions outside the range of Ochotona princeps. Exposure and vulnerability maps are based on the MIROC5 global climate model projections for 2050 and for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.
Ochotona princeps predictions.zip