Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming
Cite this dataset
Chambault, Philippine et al. (2024). Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming [Dataset]. Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.tqjq2bw2c
Abstract
Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer vs. 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains vs. losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.
README: Arctic-whales-predicted-habitat
This repository contains code and data necessary to generate the analyses and figures associated with the manuscript entitled "Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming" (2022, Science Advances). Manuscript authors: Philippine Chambault, Kit M. Kovacs, Christian Lydersen, Olga Shpak, Jonas Teilmann, Christoffer M. Albertsen, Mads Peter Heide-Jørgensen.
The dataset can be found here and includes the satellite tag-associated data filtered for the three whale species (Belugas, Narwhals and Bowhead whales), both localities (West and East Greenland) and both seasons (summer: Aug-Sep and winter: Dec-Mar); Bel refers to Beluga, Nar to Narwhal and Bw to Bowhead whale.
The R codes have been archived in the Zenodo repository (<https://zenodo.org/record/6618144>). The R code supporting this manuscript is also available on GitHub (<https://github.com/pchambault/Arctic-whales-predicted-habitat)>
Both contemporary and climatic environmental data needed to run the habitat modelling scripts can be found on Copernicus-MyOcean (<https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/?option=com_csw&task=results>) and CMIP6 (<https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/>) portals.
Funding sources:
PC was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No48068 (project WARMM). This study was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (ICE-whales, grant no. 244488/E10), the Norwegian Polar Institute, the Norway-Russia Environment Commission, the Office of Naval Research (ONR, USA, award nos. N00014-13-1-0854, N00014-14-1-0424, and N00014-17-1-2233), the Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland, the Danish Cooperation for the Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA), the Carlsberg Foundation, the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, and the Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities of the Government of Greenland.
Methods
To test if Arctic cetaceans will respond differently to ocean warming in areas west and east of Greenland, we utilized a large tracking dataset spanning 28 years, including sub-populations from all three Arctic endemic cetaceans in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (n=227 individuals; bowhead whale, beluga and narwhal). Using environmental data from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6), a series of species distribution models were used to (i) predict current and (ii) project future (up to 2100) distributions of the three whale species in our study region, and to (iii) assess habitat and latitudinal changes in response to global warming.
Funding
The Research Council of Norway, Award: 244488/E10
Norwegian Polar Institute
Norway-Russia Environment Commission
Office of Naval Research, Award: N00014-13-1-0854
Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland
Danish Cooperation for the Environment in the Arctic
The Carlsberg Foundation
Grønlands Naturinstitut
Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities of the Government of Greenland
Office of Naval Research, Award: N00014-14-1-0424
Office of Naval Research, Award: N00014-17-1-2233
European Union, Award: 48068, Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement