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Global nitrous oxide emissions from livestock manure during 1890−2020: An IPCC Tier 2 inventory

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May 06, 2024 version files 57.91 GB

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Abstract

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock manure contribute significantly to the growth of atmospheric N2O, a powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) and dominant ozone-depleting substance. Here, we estimate global N2O emissions from livestock manure during 1890−2020 using the Tier 2 approach of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Global N2O emissions from livestock manure increased by ~350% from 451 [368−556] Gg N yr-1 in 1890 to 2042 [1677−2514] Gg N yr-1 in 2020. These emissions contributed ~30% to the global anthropogenic N2O emissions in the decade 2010−2019. Cattle contributed the most (60%) to the increase, followed by poultry (19%), pigs (15%), and sheep and goats (6%). Regionally, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America dominated the growth in global emissions since the 1990s. Nationally, the largest emissions were found in India (329 Gg N yr−1), followed by China (267 Gg N yr−1), the United States (163 Gg N yr−1), Brazil (129 Gg N yr−1) and Pakistan (102 Gg N yr−1) in the 2010s. We found a substantial impact of livestock productivity, specifically animal body weight and milk yield, on the emission trends. Furthermore, a large spread existed among different methodologies in estimates of global N2O emission from livestock manure, with our results 20%−25% lower than those based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. This study highlights the need for robust time-variant model parameterization and continuous improvement of emissions factors to enhance the precision of emission inventories. Additionally, urgent mitigation is required, as all available inventories indicate a rapid increase in global N2O emissions from livestock manure in recent decades.