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Dryad

Data for: An integrated population model and population viability assessment for the southern population of a data-poor species

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May 02, 2024 version files 2.90 KB

Abstract

We use Monte Carlo methods which draw parameters from Bayesian posterior distributions to generate a distribution of population size estimates and trajectories, thus giving managers a fuller accounting of the uncertainty in the population status. We then propagate this population estimate and its associated uncertainty into a model using Monte Carlo methods to assess the impact of fishing bycatch on the species. We show that the population is below the recovery goal of 3,000 adults. The current total population estimate (including juveniles) is approximately 10,000 fish. Our model finds that fishing bycatch pressure reduces an otherwise assumed stable population by a median value of 0.4% per year, which could impede the recovery of the species. Fisheries bycatch is only one of many threats this population faces, and future work is needed to assess how other threats, such as spawning habitat alteration through dams and water diversions, may affect this population’s trajectory. The framework presented here is suitable for further data integration or modular expansion to incorporate the cumulative effects of challenges facing green sturgeon recovery.