Using a sample of approximately 7,000 California PEV drivers recruited from California Clean Vehicle Rebate Program applicants, two logistic regression models are specified to analyze responses by PEV lessees and purchasers to the question of what they would do in the absence of the federal tax credit. Possible responses include: Purchase/lease the same PEV, switch to a different PEV, switch to a conventional or hybrid (non-plug in) vehicle, or do not acquire a vehicle at all. Several key insights are found; higher discounts from the tax credit increase the probability of lessees indicating they would not lease a PEV at all. For purchasers, in addition to not purchasing any vehicle at all, the probability of purchasing a conventional vehicle, or another PEV also increase. These findings could have implications for California’s ability to reach its ZEV milestones and are important to consider due to recent changes to the US federal tax credit. Our findings indicate that many PEV adopters would likely not adopt their PEV without the tax credit, potentially more so for leased compared to purchased vehicles. There are also unique results for lessees related to the impact of home ownership; renters are more likely than homeowners to lease a conventional vehicle than a PEV in the absence of the tax credit. This finding contributes to the literature which finds homeowners to be more likely to adopt a PEV than renters, emphasizing the importance of access to at-home charging for PEV adoption. These results show how incentives may be more influential for adoption decisions in the PEV lease market is, and the factors which are associated with consumers’ PEV adoption behavior in the absence of the federal tax credit.

We use results from a cohort survey of electric vehicle owners in California conducted in 2019. The respondents of the survey are sampled from the pool of California Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) recipients, a rebate program for purchasers and leasers of electric vehicles within California. The CVRP is administered by the Center for Sustainable Energy & California Air Resources Board, who have an agreement with the University to provide contacts (e-mail) for solicitation for the purposes of disseminating and gathering respondents for the survey. Altogether, phase 5 include 7,078 respondents, all of whom have applied for the CVRP rebate following the purchase or lease of a PEV.

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