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Effects of low-carbon energy adoption on airborne particulate matter concentrations with feedbacks to future climate over California

Kumar, Anikender1; Zapata, Christina1; Yeh, Sonia2; Yang, Chris1; Ogden, Joan1; Lee, Hsiang-He1; Chen, ShuHua1; Kleeman, Michael1

Published Jul 23, 2020 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.25338/B8NK7W

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Jul 23, 2020 version files 72.86 GB

Abstract

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrationsunder a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California.  Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model over California with 12 km spatial resolutionfor the year 2054. The avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over landcompared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest.  Top of atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m-2, surface temperature warmedby 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH)increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level.  As an order-of-magnitudecomparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5 – RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K.  The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO2are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.