Skip to main content
Dryad logo

Spatial scenarios for market penetration of plug-in battery electric trucks in the United States

Citation

Miller, Marshall (2022), Spatial scenarios for market penetration of plug-in battery electric trucks in the United States, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.25338/B8Q34J

Abstract

Carbon emissions targets require large reductions in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the near- to mid-term, and the transportation sector is a major emitter of GHGs. To understand potential pathways to GHG reductions, this project developed the U.S. Transportation Transitions Model (US TTM) to study various scenarios of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market penetration in the U.S. The model includes vehicle fuel economy, vehicle stock and sales, fuel carbon intensities, and costs for vehicles and fuels all projected through 2050. Market penetration scenarios through 2050 are input as percentages of sales for all vehicle types and technologies. Three scenarios were developed for the U.S.: a business as usual (BAU), low carbon (LC), and High ZEV scenario. The LC and High ZEV include rapid penetration of ZEVs into the vehicle market. The introduction of ZEVs requires fueling infrastructure to support the vehicles. Initial deployments of ZEVs are expected to be dominated by battery electric vehicles. To estimate the number and cost of charging stations for battery electric trucks in the mid-term, outputs were used from a California Energy Commission (CEC) study projecting the need for chargers in California. The study used the HEVI-Pro model to estimate electrical energy needs and number of chargers for the truck stock in several California cities. The CEC study outputs were used along with the TTM model outputs from this study to estimate charger needs and costs for six U.S. cities outside California. The LC and High ZEV scenarios reduced carbon emissions by 92% and 94% in the U.S. by 2050, respectively. Due to slow stock turnover, the LC and High ZEV scenarios contain significant numbers of ICE trucks. The biomass-based liquid volume reaches 70 (High ZEV) to 80 (LC) billion GGE by 2045. For the cities in this study, the charger cost ranges from $5 million to $2.6 billion in 2030 and from roughly $1 billion to almost $30 billion in 2040.

Methods

We collected data on the number of trucks projected for California in 2030 disaggregated into trucking vehicle type for all California and for the cities of Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Diego. We collected data on the number of battery electric trucks projected for California in 2030 disaggregated into trucking vehicle type for all California and for the cities of Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Diego.

The data comes from a CEC study and an LBNL study:

Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment: Analyzing Charging Needs to Support Zero-Emission Vehicle in 2030, Staff report CEC-600-2021-001. 2021. https://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/2020/assembly-bill-2127-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure-assessment-analyzing

Wang, Bin, Doug Black, Fan Tong, and Cong Zhang (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2020. “Presentation — Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projections (HEVI-Pro).” Integrated Energy Policy Report August 6th workshop. https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=234209

We also collected data on charger cost, city population, and the California TTM model projected number of ZEV trucks in the California for 2030 and 2040.

Usage Notes

The data are in Excel spreadsheets

Funding

U.S. Department of Transportation, Award: 69A3551747114