Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin
Data files
Jul 06, 2023 version files 13.19 KB
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Mongolia_Ecophys_Data_CSV.csv
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README.md
Abstract
Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica’s Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories, we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.
Methods
Ecophysiological data were collected using a Jr. PAM Chlorophyll Fluorometer and a mass spectrometer.
Climate model data comes from CMIP6.
Usage notes
Data can be opened using a text editor or Microsoft Excel.
Codes can be opened using a mix of R, Matlab, and Python.