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Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Chan, Wei-Ping1; Lenoir, Jonathan2; Mai, Guan-Shuo1; Kuo, Hung-Chi3; Chen, I-Ching4; Shan, Sheng-Feng1

Published Feb 02, 2024 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.1rn8pk0wm

Data files

Feb 02, 2024 version files 54.60 MB

Abstract

Mountain ranges harbor high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species under anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of isotherm shift velocities along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. We address this by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally using satellite data (SLRT) and laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (i.e., the moist adiabatic lapse rate: MALRT). Dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or MALRT, we provide the first maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (> 11.67 m/yr for the SLRT, > 8.25 m/yr for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates like Northern Sumatra, the Brazilian Highlands, and Southern Africa. By linking these velocities to species range shift velocities, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting persisting range shift dynamics even if we manage to curb climate change trajectories. Our findings are vital for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions we identified.

References

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