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Data from: Are Bitcoin bubbles predictable? Combining a generalized Metcalfe's law and the LPPLS model

Citation

Wheatley, Spencer et al. (2019), Data from: Are Bitcoin bubbles predictable? Combining a generalized Metcalfe's law and the LPPLS model, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.22k10nd

Abstract

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in Bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warning of market instabilities, quantifying a high crash hazard and probabilistic bracket of the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel's back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of Bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways Bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).

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