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Data from: Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws

Citation

Chang, Joshua C. (2019), Data from: Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4k25m2q

Abstract

When extended to data from the 2016--2017 NBA season specifically for LeBron James, a model depending on the previous shot (single-step Markovian) does not clearly beat a model with independent outcomes. An error-correcting variable length model of two parameters, where James shoots a higher percentage after a missed free throw than otherwise, is more predictive than either model.

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