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Data from: The effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador.

Citation

Iturralde-Pólit, Paula; Dangles, Olivier; Burneo, Santiago F.; Meynard, Christine N. (2017), Data from: The effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador., Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4v52c

Abstract

Ecuador is one of 17 nations with the greatest diversity in the world, sheltering lowland and mountain regions that are considered global biodiversity hotspots. While these regions are projected to be highly impacted by climate change, it is not clear what would be the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of 8 species distribution models (SDM) to determine future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover of 201 mammals. Distributions were projected using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We also contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no-dispersal versus full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, current mammal diversity in Ecuador is expected to decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predict very important changes in the distribution of mammal diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas compared to other mammals. Our work supports that it is imperative for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to incorporate the impact of climate change.

Usage Notes

Location

Ecuador