Recent advancements in single-cell technologies allow characterization of experimental perturbations at single-cell resolution. While methods have been developed to analyze such experiments, the application of a strict causal framework has not yet been explored for the inference of treatment effects at the single-cell level. In this work, we present a causal inference-based approach to single-cell perturbation analysis, termed CINEMA-OT (Causal INdependent Effect Module Attribution + Optimal Transport). CINEMA-OT separates confounding sources of variation from perturbation effects to obtain an optimal transport matching that reflects counterfactual cell pairs. These cell pairs represent causal perturbation responses permitting a number of novel analyses, such as individual treatment effect analysis, response clustering, attribution analysis, and synergy analysis. We benchmark CINEMA-OT on an array of treatment effect estimation tasks for several simulated and real datasets and show that it outperforms other single-cell perturbation analysis methods. Finally, we perform CINEMA-OT analysis of two newly-generated datasets: (1) rhinovirus and cigarette smoke-exposed airway organoids, and (2) combinatorial cytokine stimulation of immune cells. In these experiments, CINEMA-OT reveals potential mechanisms by which cigarette smoke exposure dulls the airway antiviral response, as well as the logic that governs chemokine secretion and peripheral immune cell recruitment.

Both the 10x format count matrix files and the preprocessed Scanpy objects are provided for both datasets.