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Estimation of non-health Gross Domestic Product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India

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Sep 25, 2023 version files 11.25 KB
Oct 02, 2023 version files 11.25 KB

Abstract

This study estimates the economic losses (GDP), particularly the impact of COVID-19 deaths on non-health components of GDP in West Bengal state. The NHGDP losses were evaluated using cost-of-illness approach. Future NHGDP losses were discounted at 3%. Excess death estimates by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) were used. Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying discount rates and Average Age of Death (AAD).

21,532 deaths in West Bengal since 17th March 2020 till 31st December 2022 decreased the future NHGDP by $0.92 billion. Nearly 90% of loss was due to deaths occurring in above 30 years age-group. The majority of the loss was borne among the 46–60 years age-group. The NHGDP loss/death was $42,646, however, the average loss/death declined with a rise in age. The loss increased to $9.38 billion and $9.42 billion respectively based on GBD and WHO excess death estimates. The loss increased to $1.3 billion by considering the lower age of the interval as AAD. At 5% and 10% discount rates, the losses reduced to $0.769 billion and $0.549 billion respectively.

Results from the study suggest that COVID-19 contributed to major economic loss in West Bengal. The mortality and morbidity caused by COVID-19, the substantial economic costs at individual and population levels in West Bengal, and probably across India and other countries, is another argument for better infection control strategies across the globe to end the impact of this epidemic.