Estimation of non-health Gross Domestic Product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India
Data files
Sep 25, 2023 version files 11.25 KB
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NHGDP_WB.csv
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README.md
Oct 02, 2023 version files 11.25 KB
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NHGDP_WB.csv
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README.md
Abstract
This study estimates the economic losses (GDP), particularly the impact of COVID-19 deaths on non-health components of GDP in West Bengal state. The NHGDP losses were evaluated using cost-of-illness approach. Future NHGDP losses were discounted at 3%. Excess death estimates by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) were used. Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying discount rates and Average Age of Death (AAD).
21,532 deaths in West Bengal since 17th March 2020 till 31st December 2022 decreased the future NHGDP by $0.92 billion. Nearly 90% of loss was due to deaths occurring in above 30 years age-group. The majority of the loss was borne among the 46–60 years age-group. The NHGDP loss/death was $42,646, however, the average loss/death declined with a rise in age. The loss increased to $9.38 billion and $9.42 billion respectively based on GBD and WHO excess death estimates. The loss increased to $1.3 billion by considering the lower age of the interval as AAD. At 5% and 10% discount rates, the losses reduced to $0.769 billion and $0.549 billion respectively.
Results from the study suggest that COVID-19 contributed to major economic loss in West Bengal. The mortality and morbidity caused by COVID-19, the substantial economic costs at individual and population levels in West Bengal, and probably across India and other countries, is another argument for better infection control strategies across the globe to end the impact of this epidemic.
README: Non-Health Gross Domestic Product (NHGDP) Loss due to COVID-19 Deaths in West Bengal, India
Description of the data and file structure
This study estimates future NHGDP losses associated with COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India. Economic losses in terms of Non-Health Gross Domestic Product (NHGDP) among six age-group brackets viz. 0-15, 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, 61-75 and 75 and above were estimated to facilitate comparisons and to initiate advocacy for an increase in health investments against COVID-19. NHGDPLossi= Di*DYLLi*NHGDPPC | i=1\,2\, \,n\, where i represents n age-gender cohorts; Di = deaths at the given age and gender; DYLLi= Discounted Years of Life Lost; NHGDPPCi= Non-Health GDP Per Capita at the given age and gender The NHGDP data for the state is obtained by subtracting Per capita Health Expenditure from Per Capita GDP. NHGDPPC= GDPPC-PCHE GDPPC= GDP Per Capita PCHE= Per Capita Health Expenditure
Total NHGDP Loss= Summation of NHGDPLoss across all age-gender cohorts
YLLi=LE-AAD Where, YLLi=Undiscounted Years of Life Lost LE= Life Expectancy AAD= Average Age at Death
Discounted years of Life loss, DYLLi= ((1 e^(-r*YLLi)))/r r= Discount rate for the value of life
Data Source The population data: India Census. West Bengal
Population COVID-19 deaths data (from 17th March 2020 till 31st December 2022): Government of West Bengal D of H& FW. WEST BENGAL COVID-19 HEALTH BULLETIN Life Expectancy data: Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India Per capita GDP (PCGDP) data: Reserve Bank of India. HANDBOOK OF STATISTICS ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY
2020-21 Per capita health expenditure (PCHE) data: Institute of Policy Research Studies. West Bengal Budget Analysis 2021-22 The study used midpoint age as the age of death for all the age brackets. Considering the legal minimum age for working i.e., 15 years. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of age on the overall total NHGDP loss estimate.
The model was re-estimated assuming an average age at death to be the starting age of each age-group bracket. Based on existing literature discounted rate of interest to measure the value of life is taken as 2.9%. As a sensitivity analysis, NHGDP loss has also been computed using 5% and 10% of discounted rates of interest. Another sensitivity analysis was conducted by considering the excess death estimates given by GBD and WHO.
Methods
Various open domains were used to gather data on COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal and the aforementioned estimates. Economic losses in terms of Non-Health Gross Domestic Product (NHGDP)among six age-group brackets viz. 0–15, 16–30, 31–45, 46–60, 61–75 and 75 and above were estimated to facilitate comparisons and to initiate advocacy for an increase in health investments against COVID-19. This study used midpoint age as the age of death for all the age brackets. The legal minimum age for working i.e., 15 years. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of age on the overall total NHGDP loss estimate. The model was re-estimated assuming an average age at death to be the starting age of each age-group bracket. Based on existing literature discounted rate of interest to measure the value of life is taken as 2.9%. As a sensitivity analysis, NHGDP loss has also been computed using 5% and 10% of discounted rates of interest.
Usage notes
Microsoft Excel Software would be required to open the data set.