Differential responses to weather and land-cover conditions explain spatial variation in winter abundance trends in a migratory bird of conservation concern
Data files
Oct 07, 2024 version files 335.75 KB
-
count_data.csv
55.75 KB
-
pland_data.csv
193.51 KB
-
README.md
5.34 KB
-
roost_site_coordinates.csv
3.23 KB
-
weather_data.csv
5.95 KB
-
winter_GDD_data.csv
71.98 KB
Oct 07, 2024 version files 335.85 KB
-
count_data.csv
55.75 KB
-
pland_data.csv
193.51 KB
-
README.md
5.44 KB
-
roost_site_coordinates.csv
3.23 KB
-
weather_data.csv
5.95 KB
-
winter_GDD_data.csv
71.98 KB
Abstract
Effective conservation strategies for animal populations require knowledge of relationships between population dynamics and their environmental drivers. However, these processes often vary within animal populations, requiring site-specific conservation planning. Given limited financial resources, identifying groups of sites with similar population dynamics can help practitioners efficiently implement conservation programs to larger areas. We evaluated spatial patterns and environmental drivers of wintering site trends in a migratory bird of conservation concern, the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris).
We used latent class analysis to identify trend patterns in 35 years of abundance data among 59 geographically discrete Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sites. We developed a state-space abundance model in a Bayesian framework to quantify the effects of weather and land-cover conditions experienced throughout spring migration, summer breeding, autumn migration, and wintering periods on variation in wintering site abundance.
We identified two main patterns in Greenland white-fronted goose abundance trends: northeastern wintering sites declined on average by 2% per year, while southwestern wintering sites declined on average by 14% per year. Differential responses to weather and habitat conditions likely explained variation among groups, as geese at southwestern wintering sites were more negatively affected by harsh weather conditions (e.g., low temperatures and high precipitation on breeding areas) and poor habitat conditions (i.e., low-quality grasslands and croplands) on wintering areas.
Future conservation efforts to improve the suitability and nutritional quality of agricultural areas, especially cereal croplands in autumn and early winter and grasslands in late winter and early spring, could potentially improve local habitat conditions, especially in the southwestern wintering sites where abundance declines were steepest.
Synthesis and applications: We demonstrate the potential to delineate animal populations based on spatial patterns in population dynamics using long-term abundance monitoring data, which are commonly the only available data for conservation practitioners. By grouping sites based on spatial patterns in local abundance trends, we can further test hypotheses about how these groups are differentially affected by changing environmental conditions. This information is important for informing efficient conservation planning over large areas when financial resources are limited.
README: Differential responses to weather and habitat conditions explain spatial variation in winter abundance trends in a migratory bird of conservation concern.
This repository contains the data and code used in the following publication:
Schindler, A. R., A. D. Fox, C. K. Wikle, B. M. Ballard, A. J. Walsh, S. B. A. Kelly, M. D. Weegman. (2024). Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14804.
Data DOI: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6djh9w19m\
Code DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13126638
All analyses were completed using R. See manuscript for details.
Please contact the corresponding author with questions about this data package or to seek potential collaborations using these data.
Description
Model code and associated data files to quantify geographic patterns of abundance trends among Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) wintering sites and examine how weather and land-cover changes explain variation in wintering site abundance.
Authors
Alexander R. Schindler
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Anthony D. Fox
Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Christopher K. Wikle
Department of Statistics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA
Bart M. Ballard
Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX, USA
Alyn J. Walsh
National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland
Seán B. A. Kelly
National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland
Mitch D. Weegman
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Code files
01_estimating_site_trends.R
: code for estimating abundance trends of individual Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sites02_determining_number_of_groups.R
: code for exploratory analysis to determine number of groups to use in the latent class analysis03_LCA.R
: code for the latent class analysis to group wintering sites into groups based on abundance trends and location (i.e., latitude and longitude)04_fix_label_switching
: code to fix label-switching in LCA model results05_ss_env.R
: code for estimating the effects of environmental variables on annual trends in abundance
Data files
count_data.csv
: Greenland white-fronted goose wintering site count dataroost_site_coordinates.csv
: (scaled) coordinates of roosting locations for all Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sitespland_data.csv
: percent land cover data for all Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sitesweather_data.csv
: weather datawinter_GDD_data.csv
: cumulative growing degree days (GDD) for all Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sites
Data file column names (see manuscript for further details)
site_name
: name of each Greenland white-fronted goose wintering sitesite_id
: numerical identifier for each Greenland white-fronted goose wintering siteyear
: year in the study (1984-2018)year_id
: numerical identifier for each year in the study (i.e., 1-35 corresponds to 1984-2018)count
: number of Greenland white-fronted geese countedlat_scale
: (scaled) latitude of the corresponding wintering flocklon_scale
: (scaled) longitude of the corresponding wintering flockcomposite_year
: 5-year composite range of the corresponding land cover datagrass
: % grassland cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockcereal
: % cereal crop cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockpeat_bog
: % peat bog cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockscaled_grass
: (scaled) % grassland cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockscaled_cereal
: (scaled) % cereal crop cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockscaled_peat_bog
: (scaled) % peat bog cover within a 15km radius of the corresponding wintering flockspring_storm_days
: number of days with a severe storm during spring migrationspring_precip
: cumulative precipitation (in mm) during spring stagingpre_breed_freeze
: number of days below freezing during the pre-breeding periodpost_breed_precip
: cumulative precipitation (in mm) during the post breeding periodautumn_storm_days
: number of days with a severe storm during autumn migrationautumn_freeze
: number of days below freezing during autumn stagingscaled_spring_storm_days
: (scaled) number of days with a severe storm during spring migrationscaled_spring_precip
: (scaled) cumulative precipitation during spring stagingscaled_pre_breed_freeze
: (scaled) number of days below freezing during the pre-breeding periodscaled_post_breed_precip
: (scaled) cumulative precipitation during the post breeding periodscaled_autumn_storm_days
: (scaled) number of days with a severe storm during autumn migrationscaled_autumn_freeze
: (scaled) number of days below freezing during autumn stagingwinter_GDD
: cumulative growing degree days (GDD) on wintering areas from 01 January to day of goose departure from wintering areasscaled_winter_GDD
: (scaled) cumulative growing degree days (GDD) on wintering areas from 01 January to day of goose departure from wintering areas