Results from groundwater pumping-induced subsidence model, San Joaquin Valley
Data files
Dec 12, 2023 version files 712.89 KB
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kettleman_modeled_subs.csv
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README.md
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tulare_modeled_subs.csv
Abstract
The San Joaquin Valley, California has experienced dramatic subsidence over the past 100 years, but the regions with the most subsidence have shifted dramatically over this time period, from west (Kettleman City/Los Banos) to south (Tulare/Pixley/Corcoran). To date, no study has done an in-depth analysis of the mechanisms driving this shift in subsidence. We analyze head records, utilizing a novel approach that assimilates change in head data from multiple overlapping time periods, to produce an 80-year record of change in head over both the historical and modern regions of greatest subsidence. We then calibrate a deformation model to fit both historical (measured with leveling surveys) and modern (measured with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, or InSAR) datasets. We find that the stress history of the Kettleman City/Los Banos region with historically high subsidence plays a large role in reducing modern subsidence in that region, while declining heads in both regions are likely to result in major subsidence over the next several decades. This study highlights the need for active groundwater management to mitigate ongoing and future subsidence. One key dataset needed in this effort is accurate long-term head histories to reconstruct the stress history of aquifers for accurate deformation modeling.
README
This folder contains model files for Smith (2023):
kettleman_modeled_subs.csv
tulare_modeled_subs.csv
Each csv contains two columns: 'decimal-year', which indicates the date in decimal years of the modeled deformation,
and 'deformation, m', which indicates the mean modeled deformation from each area from all accepted models (the top 100 models),as described in section 3.
Methods
We refer to the manuscript for full details. This dataset contains modeled deformation over two regions in the San Joaquin Valley: the Los Banos/Kettleman City region (western region), and the Tulare/Pixley region (southern region). The model was calibrated using historical leveling surveys and recent Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data.