A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific
Data files
May 12, 2024 version files 1.33 GB
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Calcite.asc
235.96 MB
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Mask_Coastline.dbf
326 B
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Mask_coastline.shp
9.48 MB
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Mask_Coastline.shx
132 B
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Nitrate.asc
54.67 MB
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occurrences.csv
12.15 KB
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pH.asc
235.96 MB
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Phosphate.asc
54.72 MB
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README.md
1.48 KB
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Salinity_2.6.asc
57.91 MB
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Salinity_8.5.asc
57.91 MB
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Salinity.asc
54.49 MB
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Silicate.asc
54.53 MB
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SST_max_2.6.asc
57.96 MB
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SST_max_8.5.asc
57.94 MB
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SST_max.asc
54.55 MB
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SST_mean_2.6.asc
58.01 MB
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SST_mean_8.5.asc
57.97 MB
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SST_mean.asc
54.60 MB
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SST_min_2.6.asc
58.03 MB
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SST_min_8.5.asc
58.02 MB
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SST_min.asc
54.61 MB
Abstract
Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-formingspecies and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.
README
This dataset contains what is needed to perform the distribution model of Macrocystis pyrifera with Maxent as described in the methods section of the published article (DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10901).
The dataset included:
1) Global occurrences of M. pyrifera (.csv) extracted from GBIF (www.gbif.org) and following the pretreatment procedures outlined in the methods section.
2) Global coastline mask to delimit the study area and used to cut all the layers of environmental predictors (.shp). Extracted from www.naturalearthdata.com.
3) Environmental predictor (.asc; SST = Sea Surface Temperature). They were extracted from BioOracle. For more information on the environmental variables and their origin visit www.bio-oracle.org.
- Present model: SST_min (ºC), SST_max (ºC), SST_mean (ºC), Salinity, Nitrate (mmol . m-3), Phosphate (mmol . m-3), Calcite (mmol . m-3), and Silicate (mmol . m-3).
- Model for 2.6 2090-2100 scenario: SST_min_2.6 (ºC), SST_max_2.6 (ºC), SST_mean_2.6 (ºC), Salinity_2.6.
- Model for 8.5 2090-2100 scenario: SST_min_8.5 (ºC), SST_max_8.5 (ºC), SST_mean_8.5 (ºC), Salinity_8.5 .
These files are compatible with any geographic information software, such as QGIS or ArcGIS. For the present study, they were specifically utilized in Maxent software (https://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/) to model the distribution of M. pyrifera.