Understanding risks to biodiversity requires predictions of the spatial distribution of species adapting to changing ecosystems and, to that end, earth observations integrating field surveys prove essential as they provide key figures for assessing landscape-wide biodiversity scenarios. Here, we develop, and apply to a relevant case study, a method suited to merge earth/field observations with spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models to study the near-term ecological dynamics of target species in complex terrains. Our framework incorporates the use of species distribution models for a reasoned estimation of the initial presence of the target species, and accounts for imperfect and incomplete detection of the species presence in the study area. It also uses a metapopulation fitness function derived from earth observation data subsuming the ecological niche of the target species. This framework is applied to contrast occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemoratus, Carabus depressus) observed  in the context of a large ecological monitoring program carried out within the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP, Italy). Results suggest that the proposed framework may indeed exploit the hallmarks of spatially explicit ecological approaches and of remote Earth observations. The model reproduces well the observed in-situ data. Moreover, it projects in the near-term the two species' presence both in space and time, highlighting the features of the metapopulation dynamics of colonization and extinction, and their expected trends within verifiable timeframes.

The data originating from a large ecological monitoring program called Biodiversity Monitoring Project performed in the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP), a protected area located in the Italian Alpes. In this study, data on invertebrates (Coleoptera Carabidae, Coleoptera Staphylinidae, Araneae, Hymenoptera Formicidae, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera Rhopalocera) and birds (Aves) have been routinely gathered since 2006 to gain an extended understanding on elevation-driven biodiversity patterns.
The data have been gathered in the park's five valleys (Gran Piano, San Besso, Lauson, Orvieilles, Vaudalettaz, in a 2 years sampling, 4 years break scheme, i.e. the processed data is available in 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013. The project monitors species presence and abundance by considering a series of circular plots (5 to 7 in each valley, for a total of 30) of a radius of 100 m. These plots are separated by 200 m in elevation along a transect of the valley.

The presented data show the occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemoratus, Carabus depressus). The data are presented in two formats:
1) a raw format as given by the GPNP reserachers, where each plot contains five pitfall traps which researchers would sample each two-three weeks (sampling dates are given in the data).
2) a processed format where data are provided as used in the accompanying paper "Earth and field observations underpin metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes: near-term study on Carabids", where the the data was compiled as number of times the species was observed in each plot vs the number of times the plot was sampled per year.

In-situ data used in the paper "Earth and field observations underpin metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes: near-term study on Carabids"

• Raw data:
  • The raw data contains the following information:
    • Species name: Pterostichus flavofemoratus or Carabus depressus
    • Valley: the valley where the trap is located inside the Gran Paradiso National Park (Gran Piano, San Besso, Lauson, Orvieilles, Vaudalettaz)
    • Plot: the identifier for the plot
    • Trap: the identifier for the trap in the plot
    • Num: the number of times the species has been counted at the given date
    • Date: the date the sampling occurred
    • Year: the year the sampling occurred
    • month: the month the sampling occurred
    • The coordinates of the trap in WGS 84, EPSG:43326

• Processed data:
  • The processed data contains the following information, extracted from the raw data:
    • Species name: Pterostichus flavofemoratus or Carabus depressus
    • Valley: the valley where the trap is located inside the Gran Paradiso National Park (Gran Piano, San Besso, Lauson, Orvieilles, Vaudalettaz)
    • Plot: the identifier for the plot
    • Observed: the number of times the species was found in the given plot and year (data aggregated over one year and all traps for each plot)
    • Sampled: the number of times the plot was sampled in the given year
    • Year: the year of interest (2006, 2007, 2012 or 2013)
    • The coordinates of the plot in WGS 84, EPSG:43326