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Dryad

Coastal carbon sentinels: A decade of forest change along the eastern shore of the US signals complex climate change dynamics

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Oct 09, 2024 version files 186.24 KB

Abstract

Increased frequency and intensity of storms, saltwater intrusion, sea level rise, and warming temperatures are affecting forests along the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Gulf coasts of the US. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how the structure of coastal forests is being altered by climate change drivers. Here, we used data from the Forest Inventory and Analyses program of the United States Forest Service to examine structure and biomass change in forests along the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Gulf coasts of the US. We selected plots that have been resampled at low (5 m) and mid (30-50 m) elevations in coastal areas of states from Texas to New Jersey, allowing us to determine change in live trees, standing dead wood, and downed dead wood biomass (and carbon) stocks across a decade. We estimated forest attributes at the county level for each elevational class. Forest area increased by 1.9% in low elevation counties and by 0.3% in mid elevation counties. Live tree biomass density increased by 13% in low elevation counties, and by 16% in mid elevation counties. Standing dead biomass decreased in low elevation counties by 9.2% and by 2.8% in mid elevation counties. On average, downed dead wood increased by 22% in low elevation counties and decreased by 50% in mid elevation counties. Changes in the stock of C in standing and downed dead wood (0.45 to 9.1 Tg C) are similar to soil marsh C loss (9.54 Tg C). Annualized growth and harvest were both higher (16% and 58% respectively) in mid elevation counties than low elevation counties, while annualized mortality was 25% higher in low elevation counties. Annualized growth in low elevation counties was negatively correlated to sea level rise rates, and positively correlated to number of storms, illustrating tradeoffs associated with different climate change drivers. Overall, our results illustrate the vulnerability of US southeastern coastal low and mid elevation forests to climate change and sea level rise with indications that the complexity and rate of change in associated ecosystem functions (e.g., growth, mortality, and carbon storage) within the greater social environment (e.g., agricultural abandonment) may increase.