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Dryad

UCI CTM model simulations used for deriving the spillover of tropospheric ozone into the stratosphere

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May 06, 2024 version files 528.86 MB

Abstract

The world has made great strides in phasing out the halocarbons that drive ozone loss, such as the chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12. While living with the well-documented depletion of the ozone layer, we are now watching the slow recovery (increase) of stratospheric ozone over this century after our phaseout of halocarbon production and use. Projecting this recovery date also depends on the impact of other changing greenhouse gases on stratospheric chemistry as well as changes in tropospheric ozone. Both observations and models identify tropospheric ozone as increasing due to air-quality pollution in the lower atmosphere. Here, using a global chemistry-transport model, we find that this ozone increase carries over into the stratosphere at rates affecting the recovery expected from the decay of atmospheric halocarbons. This process is inherently included in our chemistry-climate models but is not diagnosed as such. The ozone assessments need to consider that what happens in the troposphere does not stay in the troposphere, complicating our interpretation of ozone changes over this century.