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Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States

Citation

Robertson, G. Philip; Hamilton, Stephen; Paustian, Keith; Smith, Pete (2022), Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ghx3ffbr1

Abstract

Meeting end-of-century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature-based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature-based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the U.S. that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non-forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid-century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature-based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom-up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost-effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of reforestation. Results show a conservative end-of-century mitigation capacity of 110 (57 – 178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature-based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

Methods

The dataset is a synthesis of literature values selected based on criteria described in the parent paper’s narrative.

Usage Notes

The files can be opened in Microsoft Excel or any other spreadsheet that can load Excel-format files.

Funding

US Department of Energy Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Award: DE-SC0018409

National Science Foundation Long-term Ecological Research Program, Award: DEB 1832042

USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research Program

AgBioResearch, Michigan State University

European Union's Horizon 2020 Research Innovation Programme, Award: 774378

Soils-R-GGREAT, Award: NE/P019455/1

CIRCASA, Award: 774378

US Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Program, Award: DE-AR0000826