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Dryad

Input files for ecological modeling in interior Alaska using LANDIS-II

Data files

Jan 02, 2025 version files 39.40 MB

Abstract

Boreal forests, covering about 30 percent of Earth's forested area, are dominated by coniferous forests and are crucial reservoirs of permafrost and belowground carbon. As these forests undergo ecological changes from rapid warming, questions remain about how future interactions of wildfire, vegetation, permafrost, and soil moisture will affect the long-term sustainability of permafrost. Applying the DGS (DAMM-McNiP-GIPL-SHAW) extension of the LANDIS-II landscape forest model, we simulated soil temperature and moisture, forest succession, and wildfire across 380,400 hectares in interior Alaska under moderate and high-emissions climate scenarios until the end of this century. Permafrost simulated at the near-surface (3m) thaws significantly with an average thaw rate of 13 cm/year and 18 cm/year under moderate and extreme climate forcing, changing the region's permafrost coverage from discontinuous to isolated. Climate warming, exacerbated by a changing fire regime and landscape-level shifts from conifer to hardwood deciduous forests, caused reductions in soil moisture relative to recent conditions, and permafrost disappeared by mid-century. Future climate scenarios simulate significant increases in fire size and area burned, with fire rotation periods shortening from 110 to approximately 85 years. This altered fire regime, coupled with a decline of up to 50% in coniferous forest cover and a corresponding rise in hardwoods, underscores the profound changes expected in boreal ecosystems. The complex interplay among climate, fire, vegetation, permafrost, and hydrology in the face of a changing climate has profound implications for boreal forests and the global system alike.