Identifying where and when population “bottlenecks” occur is critical to the conservation of migratory species, many of which are declining precipitously worldwide. Especially challenging is the evaluation of changes to staging sites. These sites are indispensable links in the migratory cycle but are typically used only briefly.

We devised a field-based approach to assess the quality and carrying capacity of a critical staging site in Nanpu, China, for the declining, migratory Red Knot (Calidris canutus rogersi & C. c. piersmai) during northward migration. The Nanpu tidal flat supports 50,000-100,000 Red Knots annually, and while there, the knots feed almost exclusively on the bivalve Potamocorbula laevis. We simultaneously monitored changes in the abundance of Red Knots and bivalves across the entire staging site in spring 2018.

After taking into account potential competition with other shorebird species, we estimated that the Nanpu tidal flat was capable of supporting approximately 1.46-1.70 times the current observed level of usage of the site by Red Knots, and therefore is operating below, but close, to carrying capacity with respect to food resources for Red Knots. This result suggests that any further development of this site could harm the EAAF Red Knot population.

Synthesis and applications: Quantitative monitoring and evaluation of habitat quality of staging sites are essential to successfully conserve declining migratory species. In particular, researchers and conservation practitioners should incorporate both population size and staging duration in order to more accurately assess the importance of different sites and to quantify how changes in staging habitat quality may translate into changes in migrant population sizes at both local and global scales.

See README_Nanpu2018.txt