In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.
LIG (Pleistocene) Occurrence Points
LIG occurrence data for each species. Note that these data were trimmed so that only one occurrence resides per environmental pixel. Please see Dataset S1 for information on the stratigraphic framework of the region and the formations from which these occurrences derive.
Pleistocene_LIG_Occurrences.zip
mPWP (Pliocene) Occurrence Points
Pliocene occurrence data for species. Note that these data were trimmed so that only one occurrence resides per environmental pixel. Please see Dataset S1 for information on the stratigraphic framework of the region and the formations from which these occurrences derive.
Pliocene_mPWP_Occurrences.zip
PI (Present) Occurrence Points
PI occurrence data for species. Note that these data were trimmed so that only one occurrence resides per environmental pixel.
Present_PI_Occurrences.zip
LIG Climate Layers
Climate layers for the LIG (~130–123 Ka) from the Hadley Climate Centre. Please see our publication for information on how GCM data were derived. Note that these layers have been clipped to the maximum study area extent.
Hadley_Climate_LIG.zip
mPWP Climate Layers
Climate layers for the mPWP (~3.264–3.025 Ma) from the Hadley Climate Centre. Please see our publication for information on how GCM data were derived. Note that these layers have been clipped to the maximum study area extent.
Hadley_Climate_mPWP.zip
PI Climate Layers
Climate layers for the present-day interval from the Hadley Climate Centre. Please see our publication for information on how GCM data were derived. Note that these layers have been clipped to the maximum study area extent.
Hadley_Climate_PI.zip