Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
Data files
Aug 23, 2021 version files 13.63 MB
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AUTHOR_DATASET_ReadmeTemplate.txt
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fig2A.csv
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fig2B_botTemp.txt
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fig2B_htotal_btm.txt
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fig2B_IceExt.txt
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fig2B_O2_btm.txt
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fig2B_pH_btm.txt
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fig3_abundance.csv
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fig3_biomass.csv
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fig3_bodysize.csv
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fig4.csv
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fig5.csv
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README_species_codes.csv
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Abstract
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.